CBI, Game 2: Revenge In The Lou

Virginia Commonwealth @ Saint Louis

Best out of 3 series, Commonwealth took game 1 on their home court. The last game(s) are both in Saint Louis granted they take care of business tonight. I think the Billikens stretch the series out to 3 games and win a close one today on their home court. Saint Louis has a very influential floor- tough crowd for opponents, and are out of region for most contenders being that they are the only Midwest team in the Atlantic 10 conference. VCU isn't A10, but frequent play in that colonial region. The VCU Rams also haven't played a road game in over a month-this isn't the best venue to go into and try to steal one. VCU is a more talented team, but this game is a bit of a breather for them with a 1-o lead in the series already. Saint Louis will be hungry to get by tonight and gain an advantage of closing the 3 game series with another win on their home court, Friday. I think Saint Louis wins a very close game tonight, but since the points are offered I'll prepare for a close loss as well. It is my prediction that the CBI will go the full best of 3 series.

Saint Louis (+2)

N.I.T Final 4-Breeding The A10 Championship (Sequel)

The 2 N.I.T games tonight have the potential to produce a sequel of the Atlantic 10 championship... but with different a cast. Richmond and Temple both got knocked out in the 1st round of the NCAA tournament. Xavier was the bright spot, carrying the torch for the conference through a gauntlet of a seeding path (running through Minnesota, before a nail biting win then loss to Pitt, then Kansas State). Dayton and Rhode Island have been cruising through their post season, and I'm going to assume they keep it up in hopes that they face each other for the N.I.T championship. Both will be tested tonight as the Flyers face Ole Miss, and Rhode Island gets the Tar Heels.

Mississippi Rebels vs. Dayton Flyers

SEC basketball is not my forte, I usually tend to shy away from those games--especially within conference. I have a bit of a gauge on the Rebels as I followed them out of conference to start the season. They are in every game, and will be in it tonight against Dayton. Although Ole Miss thrives in transition, I think the unfamiliarity with the exceptional pace of the Flyers along with Dayton's bothersome press "D" will catch the Rebels off guard a bit to start, and Dayton is not the team you want to try to recover against. That slip up will give Dayton all that they need. The line opened for Ole Miss @ (-1.5), since it has moved to even.

Dayton (-1)

Rhode Island Rams vs. North Carolina Tarheels

UNC is hitting stride, going into two of the toughest home court venues and knocking off Mississippi State and UAB. Rhode Island is always under the radar and match up well with almost anyone in the country. They have a knack for getting up out of conference against powerhouses and they usually win, sometimes losing close games. This year in particular the Rams have been quite impressive and should have probably got into the NCAA tournament field-they went 0-3 against Temple this year, if they had won 1 of those 3 games, they probably would have been a tournament lock. Because of the traditional bias to UNC as well as their recent play, I am somewhat surprised that the line is even-I would have expected Rhode Island to be a dog. However, the Rams consistent play this year, and their ability to "giant-kill" leads me to believe they will win this game, maybe lose by a point.

Rhode Island (+1)

CIT FINAL: Pacific Tigers vs. Missouri State Bears

I don't know how many of you are familiar with the Big West Conference, but they contain some teams that can play some serious ball. The bracket buster games earlier this year heightened by attention to the conference as they cruised through them, beating up WAC teams as well as other reasonable conferences left and right. Pacific is arguably the best team in the Big West even though UCSB won the conference. I was surprised they advanced, beating one of the hottest mid-major teams in the country-Appalachian State, on the road. With that being said, this is a bad spot for them. Missouri State is a gem on their home court and have played lights out this year. I didn't buy into them at first because if you transition them from the previous year without looking at the potential changes closely-one wouldn't expect them to be this good. They are "this good", one of the top teams in the Missouri Valley. Shout Out to Rush and Rich The Factor- they got some of their ppl. playing for MO West Plains-with an intense home floor advantage. Missouri State is favored by 5. I would consider buying Pacific up to +7, but they could get hurt here. Im more comfortable taking the Bears.

Missouri State (-4)

College Basketball Invitational, Game 1

Saint Louis vs. Virginia Commonwealth
These two programs are facing each other for the 1st time. Saint Louis plays a suffocating defense, and likes to slow the game down and work the perimeter, when teams play right into their hands (like Dayton the last few years), it allows the Billikens to stay competitive and control the upper hand in the match up. VCU likes to run on "O", and press on "D" (they lead the CAA in steals)-being that this is on the Rams home court, Saint Louis will undoubtedly succumb to VCU's pace. Majerus is a good coach, but I think game 1 is more about the Billikens scouting VCU for the 2nd and 3rd game. With that being said, I have a hunch that VCU wins this game rather easily. Both teams were deserving of NIT bids, got snubbed instead, and invited to the CBI tournament. To give the Billikens some credit for their surprising season I bought 2 points on this when the line was 9. It has jumped to 10 since. VCU (-7).

Elite 8: Blue Deviled Eggs

Duke vs. Baylor

Im going to be brief today, as I am running late for an engagement. There is not a shadow of doubt in my mind that Baylor will either win or lose a very close game here. They are also a more athletic team than Duke is and score at a high percentage consistently. They also have the advantage of playing on an in-state court as their regional matchup is in Houston, TX.

Duke holds the experience edge, and this might cause a victory, but I doubt they cover. To be honest, I am surprised Duke is favored by 5 in this game, I would have expected a relatively even line, so I will capitalize. Baylor (+5) or (+6)

Tennessee vs. Michigan State

I think the Volunteers win this game solely on the fact that Kalin Lucas is out @ PG for the rest of the tournament for the Spartans. I am a believer that continuity & rhythm gets you in the win column, and when he dropped out earlier for a couple games in the year (@Illinois-loss being one of them), they clearly lost a step. After getting by Northern Iowa, who I thought would beat them while using the same philosophy, I may have backed off on that opinion a bit. However, I still feel that Tennessee runs a different type of game than the Panthers and will will speed it up as they did against Ohio State. Michigan State holds the tournament experience factor as they have proven they are built for this type of stomping ground. I think the Spartans bang with them but lose a close game in the end. Tennessee (-1)

**My son Cameron has Duke advancing to the title game (albeit vs. Pitt) and wants to let all of you know that his bracket has a higher score than mine.

Elite 8: Look Beyond The Horizon

Butler vs. Kansas State

Halfway through the season I was asked who I thought off the bat would win the National Championship. Even after the overtime home loss to Kansas, my response was Kansas State. However, after a road loss to Kansas, where the Jayhawks pulled away heavily at the end, and a home loss to Iowa State to close the season, I thought maybe my National Champion goal for this team was a misread. Nonetheless, when I made my bracket I had them beating Syracuse in the Elite 8, with Butler losing to Vanderbilt in round 2. Fast forward a couple rounds, and Syracuse fell right into Butler's tempo trap, Vanderbilt never got that matchup and we all became familiar with a 30 win team from the Ohio Valley Conference that beat Vanderbilt and almost beat Butler as well. In the lower half of the West Region, I had Kansas State taking care of business, I knew their toughest game would be against Xavier and they barely got through that (I had Xavier covering, and won/pushed depending on how you played it). I predicted overtime on K-State/Xavier in the previous entry and the outcome didn't disappoint my read. The Kansas State Wildcats score alot in transition, and in general. This doesn't fit Butler's profile--they play both but have a tendency to a slowed down, half court game. With that being said, they are very well coached and execute their game plan well, as they did against Syracuse. This game will by no means be a blowout, Butler is in every game regardless of tempo, but today I doubt they control the pace. Butler is more versatile than Saint Mary's, but take a page from the Baylor game yesterday-transition baskets can kill against an offense that is set-reliant, in this case in particular Butler won't keep up. Kansas State (-3)

West Virginia vs. Kentucky

Mazulla looks to be managing the floor well at the PG spot for the Mountaineers in place of injured Truck Bryant, and they have so many scoring options that they really don't miss his presence. They also have a tenacious defense that will give Kentucky fits and crash the boards with them. The Kentucky Wildcats have been dominant throughout this tournament, but their two toughest games were against Wake Forest and Cornell. I expect a close, competitive game but I'm pulling for Huggins squad.

West Virginia (+5) or (+6).

Sweet 16: A Musketeers Revenge

KSU vs. Xavier

In my only bracket this year, I have Kansas State entering the Final 4 out of the West Region. I have them knocking out Xavier in the Sweet 16. Turns out both teams handled business and actually made it to this point, now Im not sure who wins this game. When these two played earlier in Manhattan, KS. Xavier was justifiably tentative, they went through a recent coaching change when Miller took the Arizona job. It wasn't an overhaul because the hire was in-house, but these things take some time (or games) getting used to. Thats also one of the toughest road venues to play in (K State)...but all those slip ups were long forgotten as Xavier opened conference play, and closed the season on a mean streak. Kansas State is favored by 5 in this game, but Im thinking overtime, and the Elite 8 pass could go either way. Xavier (+5 or 6).

WV vs. Washington

This West Virginia/Washington matchup got a bit more intriguing when WV PG Bryant broke his foot in practice this week, and had to shut it down for the season. They have enough depth to make up the slack but make no mistake, they lose a component. They also have a tendency to start many games slow, give up a big spot, and then kick it into gear when need be. Both teams play tough defense, WV a bit more glorified as Washington is playing in a down Pac 10 this year. I think the Washington Huskies are a very good team. UW's sampling from out of conference leads me to believe they can bang with a "Truckless" West Virginia, and possibly pull off the W. The Marquette and New Mexico wins were also very impressive.

Washington (+6).

Syracuse vs. Butler

I think Syracuse wins this game, I don't particularly like the spread (-6) and I also don't like that the Orangemen center Onuaku is out for a 3rd straight game. This Butler unit has been together for a long time, and they hardly ever lose. If Boeheim didn't scout this well, and the Bulldogs come in executing their game, Syracuse will be in for a long night. I think this game will be competitive, but the Big East team moves on. Syracuse (-5).

Cornell vs. Kentucky

The Cornell Big Red have surprised me all tournament, and Im impressed so far. However, Im not on the bandwagon, and a win against Kentucky is out of reach. I didn't think Cornell could handle Temple, but they had a "schematic advantage" to quote an ex-Notre Dame coach. I had Wofford knocking out Wisconsin (which almost happened), so when Cornell advanced to round 2, to face the Badgers I thought they could pull it off. An overrated Wisconsin team got handled and now we have an Ivy League school in the Sweet 16...the buck stops here. Cornell gets the Kentucky Wildcats on a New York court, but I dont think it makes a difference as they are a different animal. One host on Rivals.com said "this game is like future NBA stars (Kentucky) vs. their financial advisers (Cornell)". Wildcats Cover. Kentucky (-7 or -8).

C.I.T***Appalachian State (-3) vs. Pacific.

Im not really trying to get into this. I think App. State wins by at least 3. Good Luck.

Cheers.

A10 Bread

We have some games on the board tonight, most notably 2 in the NIT where the 2 most dangerous Atlantic 10 teams that didn't make the NCAA's look to make a point, an NIT final 4 point. Virginia Tech (25-8) hosts The Rhode Island Rams (25-9) in the NIT quarters, and Im not about to stick up for VA Tech in regards to getting ripped off by the selection committee for scheduling weak and having an RPI of 1000- i don't think much of them anyways. The Hokies are favored by 6 tonight, I like Rhode Island to get it done on the grit in Blacksburg- thats where my read goes. Rhode Island (+6 or +7)

The 2nd game involves the Red-nosed Pits of the Atlantic 10, Dayton Flyers as they go on the road to Champaign to lock jaws with an Illinois team that can get up for a tough test. I have respect for Illinois, more than the bookmakers do. With that being said, I don't think they should be favored in this game. Dayton's 1-2 punch at PG, Lowery and Warren just press and press and turn you over. I think the Flyers sweep Illinois off their feet to kick the game off. I expect a catchup period, but not enough to pull it off. Since the points are offered, I'll take Dayton to cover but I expect a win. Dayton (+3 or +4).

The final A10/other conference game in the board tonight is not an NIT game, and Im sure Majerus and his St. Louis squad think it should be. They were barely on the bubble for the NCAA's towards the end of the season, after a hot streak where they started running through the top teams in the conference, most notably sweeping Dayton and a home win over Rhode Island. However, after close home losses to Xavier and Temple and a rematch L to Rhode Island in the conference tournament, Saint Louis was clearly cut off the bubble, but an NIT bid seemed likely. Fast forward, after getting passed up by Dayton and Rhode Island- the Billikens have played in the CBI with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. They play outstanding ball at home and take on the Ivy League powerhouse Princeton Tigers who just ran through A10 disappointment, schizophrenic and disorganized Duquesne, and a pretty good IUPUI team to reach the CBI semi's. Princeton walks into a hostile territory against a coaching mastermind and a Saint Louis team that has hit their stride late season. The Billikens are 4 point favorites at home against a 3 point reliant Princeton team who have proven not to be overlooked this year. Im good with the Billikens -3 in this game, and think they advance to face VCU in the CBI final. Saint Louis (-3).

*Note: VCU hosts the Boston Terriers tonight in the other CBI semi-final, and I think they get by the Terriers with flying colors. Boston is also missing their starting PG, a valuable asset as the team assist leader and contributing 14 ppg. VCU is getting 11.5 points, I think they win by 12+.

Cheers.