Scope On Contact: Boston Red Sox

I kicked off the InterLeague schedule with authority, posting a lofty 10(w)-3(L) record over 14 games (77%)-with 1 push on the Cubs (+1) keeping it close in Texas. This increased the balance 33% of the original wager. Although no cigar on the parlay (need a perfect day 4 that), you can't ask for better protection, without the sweat. A 3 game trend has surfaced since the "Scope On Contact" feature was introduced: mind you I started in a mediocre alphabetical order with Arizona, Atlanta and Baltimore---but all 3 teams won on their breakdown days. Today I give my take on the Boston Red Sox, underdogs in Philly today, but I project a win or at least a 1 run loss for the Sox; Something to keep an eye on.

Boston Red Sox:

--Bats--

Torch: Kevin Youkilis

Dead Battery: Bill Hall

--Arms--

Live: Jon Lester

Dead: John Lackey

They started slow this season, and it may be difficult for the Red Sox to gain ground on the Yankees and Rays, it should also be noted that the Blue Jays are a few games up on them as well at the moment- although Boston leads that season series 5-1 so far. If you look up and down this lineup, and the quality of that starting rotation as well as decency in the bullpen, there is no reason to think this unit won't catch up to the front runners and contend for a wild card. The only problem here is that the front runners in the AL East are also stacked, and Tampa runs laps around the Red Sox with their speed and run manufacturing ability-with young excellent pitching to support it. There is no question in my mind that this Boston team will rack up a tremendous amount wins- closer to 100 than 80. They are always a tough matchup for the World Champion Yankees, and the games so far this year haven't suggested anything different; I am convinced they end up winning the season series' with both Baltimore and Toronto, and will fare well in the rest of American League play based on their high talent level. As far as the lineup goes, David Ortiz is starting to hit well, bringing his average up around the .250 mark with 8 jacks-and I wouldn't be surprised if he builds (a bit) on his recent success. The rest of the lineup is deep and powerful---additions C Victor Martinez(mid-year, 09') and OF Jeremy Hermida should turn out to be genius pickups for them, and the Adrian Beltre experiment is working out for the better thus far. When Ellsbury gets back in the lineup, an average SS Marco Scutaro will have to defer to a "bottom of the order" slot, probably filling the hole of Ellsbury's unproductive fill-in, OF Bill Hall. The fact that the Boston regulars (Youkilis, Pedroia etc.) are maintaining solid paces at the plate leads me to believe that this lineup will click well as the season goes on. They already have their spurts where they hit and score like crazy, and these moments look to occur more frequently. One knock on the Boston catchers Martinez and Varitek is that neither can throw out runners, primarily the reason running teams like Tampa can run them out of the stadium on any given night. They are not very fast, but Ellsbury's return should help, being the craft base stealer he is-and the rest of them are run producers. The pitching has been disappointing to this point, generally speaking. Buchholz and Lester are both pitching well, and the book is still out this season on Dice K Matsuzaka-tonights starter, coming off a bad start. Free agent pickup, workhorse John Lackey hasn't adjusted well to his new team thus far- he has been below average, something he is not normally accustomed to. He is 4-3, with a 5.07 ERA (A testament to Boston's hitters) but I would suggest that his ERA settles down to the high 3.00's before the season ends--another reason I would give the Red Sox a fighting chance at the wild card. The bullpen has always been decent (Delcarmen, Okajima etc.) and hard throwing Daniel Bard, their 1st round pick from 06' looks like as dangerous a reliever as they come...and then there's Papelbon to close--never an easy task for hitters playing catch-up in the 9th. Thats the Red Sox breakdown through my eyes so far. I also think they beat the Phillies tonight, getting a nice underdog spot.

The Board:

(D Lowe & C Morton must start) ATL Braves-1.0 @ -145
(Chris Volstad & G Floyd must start) CHI White Sox0.0 @ -126
(S Kazmir & K Lohse must start) LA Angels+1.0 @ -130
(B Bergesen & C Stammen must start) BAL Orioles+1.0 @ -135
(Matt Cain & G Gonzalez must start) SF Giants0.0 @ -104
(Jeff Francis & K Davies must start) COL Rockies0.0 @ -125
(Y Gallardo & K Slowey must start) MIL Brewers+1.0 @ -130
(J Niemann & Wandy Rodriguez must start) HOU Astros+2.0 @ -160
(J Cueto & Fausto Carmona must start) CLE Indians0.0 @ -105
(R Wells & D Holland must start) CHI Cubs+1.0 @ -115
(A Galarraga & John Ely must start) DET Tigers+1.0 @ -125
(D Matsuzaka & Kyle Kendrick must start) BOS Red Sox+1.0 @ -125
(P Hughes & M Pelfrey must start) NY Yankees-1.0 @ -145
(C Richard & I Snell must start) SEA Mariners+1.0 @ -145

Scope On Contact: Baltimore Orioles

Yesterday was the epitome of average, as I played all 15 games on the board on the eve of today's interleague fiasco. The end result was 7 wins, 6 losses and 2 pushes turning a break-even scenario for myself. Today, we go to the bottom of the AL East and breakdown a very talented Baltimore Orioles team with a terrible record, an injured spark plug and some pitching issues- most notably in the bullpen.

Baltimore Orioles
--Bats--
Torch: IF Ty Wigginton
Dead Battery: 1B Garret Atkins

--Arms--
Live: Jeremy Guthrie
Dead: David Hernandez

This Baltimore team was projected to finish ahead of the Blue Jays in the AL East for 4th place in the division to start the year--not likely. Everyone seemed convinced that by following the Tampa Bay Rays blueprint of building their roster within the farm system, this was the year the Orioles begin to turn around their fortunes. Baltimore has tried to emulate what the Rays have done and although the results have not been impressive in the win column, they have some incredible young talent in their lineup and pitching rotation, and the continuity of playing with each other while coming up in the minor leagues. Starting 2B Brian Roberts has been shelved since pretty much the start of the season and that has hurt tremendously-in a sense I would estimate that particular setback has probably cost the Orioles maybe 7 or 8 wins. It has also forced them to shuffle around an aging infield with Tejada at 3rd base, and bringing in "well travelled" infielders Izturis and Lugo to fill in. Needless to say, the speed in the infield is pathetic, but Ty Wigginton is on a homerun tear this year knocking out 12 already (leading the AL) and hitting for average in what looks to be a career year unless he settles back into his normalcies. Garett Atkins has been a disappointment although not being used as an everyday player. A career .286 hitter who knocks about 20-25 HR's a year has none so far this year and is batting around .220. Based on his mediocre year with the Rockies in 09', he MAY be in the midst of a decline and could turn out to be a bust pick up for the Orioles. Adam Jones and Nick Markaikis are both top tier outfielders, although Jones hasn't really found it yet this year (granted, still early). That Orioles lineup has some powerful weapons but they lack consistent pitching-mostly in the bullpen where Baltimore leads go to die in the late innings. Brad Bergesen started terrible, but was injured in the spring and it looks like the last 3 games he has found his form, and is starting to re-earn my trust. Guthrie has always been consisently good in terms of quality starts and eating up innings but he is a hard luck pitcher being the ace of that staff that usually ends up in a duel with the other teams #1 and #2 starters. Playing in the A.L East that usually entails the likes of C.C Sabathia/A.J Burnett etc...and with the bull(sh**)pen backing him up, he's not going to win many of those unfortunately. Brian Matusz has been good so far this season, aside from a couple of bad starts and it would look like this prospect has a tall ceiling and could eventually be their ace/shutdown left-hander. Aside from the record, vet Kevin Millwood was a nice pick up for the Orioles (typical 3.65 ERA), and if the lineup could support him a bit more, the 0-4 record he boasts this year could look more respectable. Again, he is a #1 or #2 in the rotation so he counters other aces, who may have more of a pitching advantage than he does on most days. The fall-guy so far in the rotation is prospect David Hernandez who can't seem to get it together for an entire outing. A good start would be crucial for him in the near future, or manager Trembley might try to search for gold in his farm system. He takes the ball tonight vs. the in-state rival Washington Nationals as interleague play begins. This Orioles team can score, but the lack of speed in the infield, and also on the basepaths (until Roberts gets back) is hurting them. If they can get 1 or 2 clutch additions to their pen, and Roberts on the field at 100% they can make a surge towards the .500 mark and spoil some American League playoff aspirations for serious contenders.

The Board:
(Bronson Arroyo & Jake Westbrook must start) CLE Indians+1.0 @ -140
(T Lilly & Colby Lewis must start) CHI Cubs+1.0 @ -120
(R Nolasco & Mark Buehrle must start) FLA Marlins0.0 @ -103
(J Lackey & Cole Hamels must start) PHI Phillies-1.0 @ -120
(J Hammel & B Bannister must start) KC Royals+1.0 @ -133
(M Garza & Brett Myers must start) HOU Astros+2.0 @ -160
(Javier Vazquez & Hisanori Takahashi must start) NY Mets+2.0 @ -165
(J Pineiro & B Penny must start) LA Angels+1.0 @ -120
(B Morrow & D Haren must start) ARI Diamondbacks-1.0 @ -140
(W Leblanc & C Lee must start) SEA Mariners-1.0 @ -145
(T Hudson & R Ohlendorf must start) ATL Braves-1.0 @ -140
(D Willis & Chad Billingsley must start) LA Dodgers-1.0 @ -150
(D Hernandez & S Olsen must start) BAL Orioles+1.0 @ -115
(D Bush & Nick Blackburn must start) MIN Twins-1.0 @ -155

Scope On Contact---Atlanta Braves

Yesterday was profitable- I posted an 8-2 record with 2 pushes* over 12 games. Safe earnings, but I was cringing on those 2 losses because they were close ones- and those of you who bet parlays understand the intense cash turnover of hitting all the games you played--3 runs away from 4 figures... off a 3$ bet. The bright side to an accurate day is laying on each game individually-you earn with balance protection-yesterday the balance increased 33%.

*Pushes= Tie Between Player And Books (returned wager)

I didn't play the Diamondbacks/Giants game (1 of the 3 that I left off my wagers), and also was scarce on giving them credit in the previous entry. My commentary on their pitching did get a few stripes, as I listed starter Ian Kennedy as the teams "Live Arm"- and that night he shut down the Giants, while that hot/cold Arizona offense went to work on Giants starter Todd Wellemeyer and those who followed suit in relief.

Atlanta Braves

Bats:

Torch: OF Jason Heyward/2B Martin Prado

Dead Battery: OF Melky Cabrera/OF Nate McLouth

Arms:

Live: SP Tommy Hanson/SP Tim Hudson

Dead: SP Derek Lowe/SP Kenshin Kawakami

I think there is alot of uncertainty about this team among observers based on what was expected out the gate, and how they have started. I think they are very well structured in terms of their lineup and pitching rotation. They are also starting to get back into shape, pulling themselves to the .500 mark after going through a recent rough stretch. When your stars aren't hitting how they should be and no one is stepping up to back the rotations' quality starts, the wins become scarce. However, one has to think the stars are heating up eventually and I would guess that things are currently moving in that direction. "Dead Battery" candidate Nate McLouth has been struggling so far this year, but finally pulled his batting average over the .200 mark. The production from him and other Braves such as Chipper clicking with the young guns like Prado and Heyward makes for a potent lineup, we are seeing glimpses of. They also have a catcher (McCann) hitting cleanup who can hit 30+ HR's a year and drive in a lofty amount of runs. Heyward is the talk of the town/league, taking the NL by storm in his 1st season-let's hope he keeps it up.

The same principle of late blooming looks to apply to the starting rotation. Nice bounce back year for the oft-injured Tim Hudson, one of the best pitchers in the game in terms of production and longevity, and it doesn't appear that he's lost his touch. Tommy Hanson continues to impress in his starts-but if only he could get more run support. I expect that to change soon as I stated earlier I guess the lineup will hit better than they have. Hanson posts a 3-3 record with an ERA under 3.00. Derek Lowe has been sub-par getting rocked on a few occasions--his ERA sits at over 5.00. The signs of a turnaround might be in the works as he threw a good game vs. Milwaukee last time out in Miller Park a venue he has had past trouble pitching in, beating the Brewers ace Gallardo. Kawakami is also trying to dig himself out of the pits, he is posting an 0-6 record in 8 starts but like Lowe, bounced back on his last start, shutting out an impressive Cincinnati Reds lineup over 6 innings, bringing his ERA to just under 5.00. Their co-ace Jair Jurrjens is still on the DL and didn't start the season well-this would be a nice return to a rotation that looks to be turning around their fortunes. Kris Medlen has filled in admirably in Jurrjens place thus far, but once the scouting reports get studied further, we will see if he can keep it up.

The Braves were projected as dark horses to contend for the NL East when this season started, picked to finish 2nd next to the Phillies by the bookmakers--this has turned out to be one of the more competitive divisions in the league, top to bottom. Right now the Braves sit in 4th and have the tools and expectancy to climb the ladder. This won't be clockwork for them-Im not convinced they are better than the Florida Marlins, and Washington has just been downright impressive. If Atlanta can bring the consistency level up every game they will give all their opponents fits. They are one of the more balanced groups and their bullpen is decent-although no one is sold on their closer situation (Billy Wagner). The clutch hitting needs to take place to solidify consistent winning and I think the Braves have the lineup to do it. I expect a good season from them this year, at the very least fighting for a wild card berth. They play Cincinnati today with Hanson on the mound vs. last years 1st round pick for the Reds, Mike Leake who has been a shutdown starter for them thus far. I like the Braves in this one.

The Board:

(M Leake & T Hanson must start) ATL Braves-1.0 @ -130
(Ryan Dempster & J Blanton must start) PHI Phillies0.0 @ -125
(Nate Robertson & Adam Wainwright must start) FLA Marlins+2.0 @ -170
(Chris Narveson & Paul Maholm must start) PIT Pirates+1.0 @ -135
(Ubaldo Jimenez & Roy Oswalt must start) HOU Astros+1.0 @ -115
(T Lincecum & R Lopez must start) SF Giants-1.0 @ -155
(K Correia & C Kershaw must start) LA Dodgers-1.0 @ -135
(L Hochevar & M Talbot must start) CLE Indians0.0 @ -130
(Jeremy Bonderman & Tyson Ross must start) DET Tigers0.0 @ -117
(R Romero & J Vargas must start) SEA Mariners+1.0 @ -128
(J Shields & Andy Pettitte must start) TB Rays+1.0 @ -115
(Francisco Liriano & Jon Lester must start) MIN Twins+1.0 @ -135
(B Matusz & S Feldman must start) BAL Orioles+1.0 @ -120
(J Maine & Luis Atilano must start) NY Mets0.0 @ +107

(E Santana & Jake Peavy must start) ChC White Sox 0.0 @ -130

Scope On Contact---Arizona Diamondbacks

I've been tweaking CounterSurveillance since the 1st entry so I haven't stuck with the same layout/format-most of my bets are always up though with several hours to spare between then and game time at the very least. From now, Ive decided to maintain a schedule through the baseball season, I'm going to break down 1 team per entry-basically the traits I look @ alongside the pitching match ups, before reading into that particular teams' immediate future (W/L). I'm going to start in alphabetical order-so we're gonna take this out west- a Diamondbacks team running empty on venom. I also will have all my plays/bets up for the day, and the lines I received when I placed them.

Arizona Diamondbacks

--Bats--

Torch: SS Stephen Drew

Dead Battery: OF Conor Jackson

--Arms--

Live: Ian Kennedy

Dead: Dan Haren

Sometimes I forget this team exists--that could be a midwest/east coast bias, but I doubt it. This is more due to their lack of relevance within their division/league. My choices for the "bats and arms" nominees are more or less wings, and obviously a pitcher like Dan Haren can turn his season around. He hasn't been nearly as dominant as in the recent past but Im not counting him out as a threat just yet, this is likely an adjustment period. However, based on the recent performances he put out he takes my cake for the Diamondbacks "dead arm" based on his disappointing start, especially by his standards. Edwin Jackson hasn't looked like the one of recent years either-he also seems to be having trouble getting it done in the National League but he shut out the Florida Marlins in his last start, a lineup of hitters that have been successful vs. Jackson in the past. Come to think of it, if these two (Haren, Jackson) get clicking alongside Ian Kennedy who has turned his life around since coming over from the Yankees that could be a mean looking rotation, especially when their true #1 starter Brandon Webb makes his EVENTUAL return (seems like an eternity). Starting pitching has always been important to that team, particularly to make up for the lack of production from that batting order. Being #2 in the National League in home runs, they have alot of power in that lineup (Upton, Reynolds etc.) but they don't hit for average. SS Stephen Drew (J.D's lil' bro) is the only one around the .300 mark, and he's not a full fledged power hitter, even though he has some pop in the bat. This team can go hot and cold as far as run producing per game, but its not a clutch lineup the Diamondbacks are working with- and will most certainly continue losing more than they win. They need formidable starting pitching to carry above the .500 mark-and although the potential is there, thats not what it is @ the moment.

The Board:

(R Dickey & L Hernandez must start) NY Mets+1.0 @ -130
(R Wolf & B Burress must start) MIL Brewers-1.0 @ -135
(Tom Gorzelanny & J Moyer must start) CHI Cubs+1.0 @ -130
(Aaron Harang & K Kawakami must start) ATL Braves-1.0 @ -105
(G Smith & F Paulino must start) HOU Astros0.0 @ -105
(A Sanchez & J Garcia must start) FLA Marlins+1.0 @ -105
(W Davis & A Burnett must start) TB Rays+1.0 @ -120
(G Meche & J Masterson must start) KC Royals+1.0 @ -130
(S Baker & C Buchholz must start) MIN Twins+1.0 @ -140
(J Guthrie & R Harden must start) BAL Orioles+1.0 @ -110
(Joe Saunders & J Danks must start) LA Angels+1.0 @ -120
(J Verlander & D Braden must start) DET Tigers0.0 @ -118

Open Central

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs (B.Burres @ T.Gorzelanny)

This has to be one of the more dissatisfying pitcher match ups of the day, opening the board at 1:30pm (central time). Nonetheless, I've been playing both these clubs enough to gain good observations and THINK I know roughly what to expect. Gorzelanny was an ex-Pirate who started out promising, and went off track. The Cubs seemed to have redeveloped him into a quality starter once again, based on his progressive performance. Burres spent the last 2 years in the American League, starting for Baltimore 2 years back, then a stint with the Blue Jays--both unsuccessful. I recall betting against him on clockwork, waiting for his starts. Last series, Pittsburgh home swept the Cubs in 3 games-In his start, Burres shut out the Cubs through 7 innings, they hit .125 vs. him. A past performance: He pitched 1 inning in Wrigley Field last year, got shelled for 3 hits in that inning giving up a run. The Cubs have been cold as of late getting bested in their last few series, notably the Pirates sweep-but they have played with their batting order removing and adding pieces (S.Castro) and in the end this mix and match thing should work for the better. The line ups look healthier on paper and should translate into more runs, I hope. Pittsburgh has scored 1 run in their last 3 games, getting swept by the dangerous Cincinnati Reds. The Pirates aren't hitting right now and the Cubs kind of look like they are taking baby steps towards where they should be. I don't think Burres has it in him to outfox the Cubs again, especially in their park and I expect an offensive breakout. On the flip side I wish I could put more stock in Gorzelanny, but I'm going to base this play on the NorthSide Chi line up.

Chicago Cubs -1 (-170)

(B Burress & Tom Gorzelanny must start) CHI Cubs-1.0 @ -175
(J Garcia & Aaron Harang must start) CIN Reds+1.0 @ -120
(O Perez & A Sanchez must start) NY Mets+1.0 @ -135
(I Kennedy & K Kawakami must start) ATL Braves0.0 @ -124
(J Moyer & R Wolf must start) MIL Brewers0.0 @ -124
(J Masterson & J Guthrie must start) BAL Orioles0.0 @ -121
(R Harden & B Cecil must start) TEX Rangers0.0 @ +111
(C Buchholz & M Scherzer must start) DET Tigers+1.0 @ -125
(S Baker & A Burnett must start) MIN Twins+2.0 @ -175
(D Fister & W Davis must start) TB Rays-1.0 @ -165
(Mark Buehrle & G Meche must start) KC Royals+1.0 @ -120
(D Braden & Joe Saunders must start) LA Angels0.0 @ -115

Run Line Abuse

Since May 8th I've been spreading the bankroll over the entire board everyday minus a couple of games. My record is 42(w)-20(L) (6 pushes) mostly thanks to my comfort level with the run line cushion. Today is full of intriguing pitching match ups in the 8 games on the board---Today Im not super confident in the legibility of each game and have to really dig deep to finally conclude a projected winner. We could wing it and bet on the familiar aces like Greinke (KC) or Sabathia (NYY) but although exceptional pitching lines are likely, the victories for their clubs aren't certain. I have 8 projected winning bets for today's schedule---I'll throw some dart facts out for each game, a short form reasoning for 3 of my plays. Today looks shaky, but at least a tread water outcome (maybe a 4-4, 5-3 record) would be acceptable. I'm more or less looking ahead, as I have ambitions of sweeping up the full 15 game schedule tomorrow.

Seattle Mariners@Baltimore Orioles (F.Hernandez @ K.Millwood)

-Baltimore is starting to catch up to their losses with better play as of late.

-Seattle looks as though they are starting to snap out of their current hitting slump.

-Seattle starter Hernandez has had success vs. the Orioles, most notably in Camden Yards.

-Hernandez also a top pitcher coming off a terrible start; redemption likely.

-Orioles starter Millwood struggles vs. the Mariners lineup, they hit him well.

-I think this game gets away from Baltimore in the later innings.

Seattle Mariners (-130)

Houston Astros@St. Louis Cardinals (B.Norris @ C.Carpenter)

-Norris has got the better of the Cards but not anyone else, I think that changes today.

-Houston won the 1st 2 of this road series, and although well capable of a sweep-not with this pitching matchup (again);

-Familiarity should catch up to Astros starter Bud Norris and I expect the Cardinals lineup to hit. On the flip side, Cardinals starter Carpenter can shut down anyone---especially in his home park.

St. Louis Cardinals -2 (-113)

New York Yankees@Detroit Tigers (C.C Sabathia @ J. Verlander)

-Close pitching matchup, initial instinct is to take the Yanks b/c one doesnt expect them to lose a series. Verlander is an ace with exceptional numbers vs. the Yankees. He's also pitching in his home park and has more of a knack for day games. Reading deeper into this, regardless of the improbability of the Tigers taking 3/4 from the Yankees I would read a low scoring close game unless the bullpens get handled. The safety is on here for me.

Detroit Tigers +2 (-180)

BOARD:

(C Sabathia & J Verlander must start) DET Tigers+2.0 @ -185
(D Huff & Zack Greinke must start) CLE Indians+2.0 @ -180
(Felix Hernandez & K Millwood must start) SEA Mariners0.0 @ -135
(J Lannan & J Chacin must start) WAS Nationals+2.0 @ -165
(J Santana & Josh Johnson must start) NY Mets+1.0 @ -160
(Ben Sheets & C.J. Wilson must start) OAK Athletics+2.0 @ -180
(M Latos & Jonathan Sanchez must start) SF Giants-1.0 @ -145
(B Norris & Chris Carpenter must start) STL Cardinals-2.0 @ -113

X-PhiLLY ArMS and A K-BaND RaDaR

Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners (M.Garza @ C.Lee)

The Mariners are in the midst of some turmoil which has reflected on their recent play, losing 8 of their last 10- including a current 4 game losing streak. They swept Baltimore in 3 the series prior to this lowly stretch. One (+) for Seattle is the return of the huge off-season arm acquisition of Cliff Lee who is back in the American League after half a year with the Phillies. He didn't allow a run vs. a potent Texas lineup that just got their all-star 2B Kinsler back from an injury, but he was matched by the Rangers starter (C.Lewis) and Seattle ended up losing 2-0 in extras. He gets his chance tonight at his 1st win as a Mariner, but the glitch is that he is facing one of the toughest lineups in the majors, the Tampa Bay Rays. Unfortunately for them, Cliff Lee has had past tendencies to shut the Rays lineup down as they do not hit him well (roster bats .189 vs. Lee). He is also showing no signs of rust, or a need to get comfortable/recover into a groove on the mound as was visible from his last start, where he rolled through the Rangers lineup. Rays starter Matt Garza is one of the best in the majors, but has had considerable trouble with the Mariners lineup and they've hit him well in both Safeco and The Trop. I think Seattle snaps their losing streak tonight.

Seattle Mariners (+100)

Arizona DiamondBacks @ Houston Astros (R.Lopez @ B.Myers)

The Astros are in danger of getting swept at home by an average Diamondbacks team, and to make matters more inexcusable for Houston, AZ's ace Dan Haren did not make an appearance this series. Today, I would suggest that Houston salvages this one and avoid the sweep scenario. The lineup faces D'Backs pitcher Rodrigo Lopez, who these Houston hitters have seen before and have maintained success against. Lopez has pitched once in Minute Maid Park and got tagged pretty badly by the Astros. Houston starter Brett Myers who came over from the Phillies this year has converted back to a starting role after being relegated to closer and middle relief duty for Philadelphia during the title hunt years. He's been ok in this role thus far, and should keep the Astros in this game enough where they can hit around Lopez some and hold a lead.

Houston Astros (-105)

MiDWeST TRiBaL AmBUsH

Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians (B.Cecil @ M. Talbot)

I'll address a few reads I've picked up on in the recent past about both ball clubs. I think the Jays hit better away from the Sky Dome than they do at home-as their record would suggest. Their bats run hot and cold, and as the last series with the Oakland A's would confirm (Toronto took 3/4 games) the lineup clicked, a nice recovery after getting home swept by the Red Sox. Game 1 in this series poses a different kind of problem for the Jays. Cleveland has settled into their home stand, and coming off a 3 game series with the charged up Minnesota Twins (winning 1/3), they will be well prepared for the Jays who start their road trip tonight in the MidWest. Cleveland starter Mitch Talbot has been on my radar since I watched his 1st game in Detroit. He got hammered for 4 runs in the 1st 2 innings, but then breezed through the Tigers lineup until he hit his roundoff 100 pitch max. No team has been able to hit him since (Record: 3-1, 2.05 ERA), and none of the Jays have ever faced him before. Since I watched Talbot finish off Detroit that 1st game, Ive bet on him every start- and bookmakers hadn't picked up on him, as Cleveland was always getting the underdog spots. The Jays counter with a proven to be effective weapon of their own- the reasoning behind the close line (Jays +106). They called up former 1st round pick Brett Cecil from Las Vegas (AAA), a couple starts back and he has not disappointed thus far. Last year, he faced the Indians twice in the Sky Dome and dominated them both games (N/R, o.69 ERA) in 13 total innings pitched-but they did bat .265 against him which does not indicate Cecil was dominant, in comparison to such few runs being scored against him (2 runs, 1 earned) in the 2 starts. Pitching in Cleveland however should be a different jungle for Cecil-he has never pitched in the Jake before and now the Indians hitters including the likes of Sizemore, Choo, Cabrera, Hafner, Peralta etc. have seen him a for a 3rd time and get him in their house. He may settle down on them as the game goes on, but I have a feeling the Cleveland hitters will make it very uncomfortable for him, early. On the other side of things, I don't think the Jays will hit Talbot today all that well if at all, and Cleveland has been able to give him run support since his 1st start. The Indians are also due for an offensive breakout, and that lineup can score in bunches, especially after the Twins did a pretty good job of holding them in check the last series. Psychologically, this is going to be a tough series for Toronto batters after eating through the Oakland rotation.

Cleveland Indians (-112)

I could have made my feature the Yankees over Baltimore tonight...haha sometimes U gotta earn it though.---ah, What the Hell...

New York Yankees (-1) (-225)

PaiNT ThE ToWN ReD (Home Colors Only)

Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals (A.Harang vs. C.Carpenter)
On a limb, it wouldn't be outlandish to take a shot on the underdog Cincinnati Reds today in the Lou- but thats a tall order against Cardinals starter, Chris Carpenter. Reds former ace Harang (still a Red, no longer an ace) hasn't had success in Busch stadium against this clutch hitting Cardinals lineup, but they generally dont hit him particularly well. This is the "rubber game" of a 3 game series, Reds taking the 1st one on a called game rain delay- but losing the 2nd yesterday. Today Cincinnati faces Chris Carpenter who has solidified a strong ownership against the Reds bats. In Cinci's defense, their lineup is hitting well right now, sweeping the Astros in Houston, and giving one of the best NL teams (The Cards) a pretty good fight in this series thus far. Up and down the order the Reds are surprisingly productive this year with the bats...a feat that has been denied to them in the recent past. The acquisitions of Cabrera (Twins) and Rolen who came over midway last year from Toronto have given the lineup a boost, along with the ongoing decency of such hitters as Votto, Phillips and Jay Bruce. The Reds aren't a pushover by any means, but their pitching rotation is the weakness in their equation as they are primed to lose many pitching duels to opposing aces such as Carpenter, who the Cardinals are throwing out today to face them. Carpenter hasn't been nearly as dominant this year as the last, but the run support he is receiving is plenty, thus the wins are there (off to a 3-0 start). His #'s vs. the Reds are staggering over the last 3 years (4-0, 1.29 ERA), and there is no reason to doubt a dominant performance here. I am leaning on the Cardinals today in what I expect to be a low scoring game in general. I think Harang will produce a quality start for Cincinnati, but Carpenter could just plain shut the Reds out, or hold them to a couple of runs at most-plus he has always been a more of a menace to opposing lineups in the Busch, rather than road ballparks.
Saint Louis Cardinals (-1) (-170)

TruTH SeruM

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (M.Pelfrey vs. R.Halladay)

My call on this is based on a few past observations. Pelfrey has the best record/ERA combo among starting pitchers. I watched his last start @ Turner field where he countered Atlanta ace Hanson, and faced a slumping Braves lineup. The game was called after 5 innings due to rain- the Mets held a 1-0 lead- the deceit is that Atlanta was hitting the Mets starter rather well, but couldn't bring runners around. As a matter of fact, Pelfrey's WHIP (walks/hits per inning-1.20) isn't nearly as spectacular as his record, respectable but not dominant. A former 1st rounder in 05', maybe this is his career year that will define the rest of his time in the majors- but I've seen him pitch, and can't say Im thoroughly impressed. The Mets have won 8 in a row and that lineup is quietly stacked with good hitters and base runners-so we can attribute it to that, as well as their pitching. Scoring will probably be scarce for the Mets as they face Roy Halladay-the one positive is that their leadoff hitter SS Jose Reyes is 4/4 lifetime off Halladay with a triple...although his last AB's were more than 3 years ago. For the rest of the Mets hitters it looks pretty bleak from there, and Halladay is looking to lock down, coming off a loss in his last start- a rare find. Pelfrey historically has trouble pitching in the Phillies' park Citizens Bank and after such a prominent start to the season I think he gets roughed up a bit today by the reigning NL champs.

Philadelphia Phillies (-1) (-160)