I have gripes with the NCAA selection committee concerning at-large bids. The RPI and Strength Of Schedule system they maneuver around when making the bracket is nothing more than a skewed opinion, and I for one wanted the tournament expanded near the 100's because some of the better mid majors in the country that were well good enough to make deep runs, get left out and forced into the consolation tournaments. The national media outlets don't help the cause much either, and I will single out some of the ESPN clowns (excluding Coach Bob Knight), as they are bound by the company to carry out their corporate agenda. Truth is, their "College Basketball Expert Panel" is a joke, and the majority of the public that buy into their rhetoric need to stay far away from this article. There's no "cinderella" story here-how do you apply that fairytale to a team that ran through their regular season schedule, and racked up a ton of wins? I get the fairytale... sounds like a group of fairies telling tales-@Doug Gottlieb, Jay Bilas and the "bracketologist" Joe Lunardi: spare me. This is basically an implication that the top mid majors in the country are some well dressed scrubs, and these ESPN clowns are waiting for the clock to strike midnight so they can get on their panel and start their "I told you so" rants. When this backfires and a team like say a San Diego State or Temple knock through a few rounds, the panelists give them a little pat on the back, although still attempting to subtly discredit the accomplishment, writing them off in the following round. Im going to run through the top 6 teams (3 in, 3 out) in the Atlantic 10-it is likely only 2 or 3 will get in the NCAA tournament, because there is a lack of respect for wins within the conference, affecting the strength of schedule/RPI factor-the "march madness fundamentals". 20+ win seasons are thus discredited within the A10, and the selection committee cheats us by disabling their possibility of a strong run, replacing them with Virginia Tech or one of those Big 12 middle teams like Colorado or Nebraska who have next to no chance of breathing in the 2nd round, or possibly surviving the opening ceremonies. In this order, these are top 6 teams in the Atlantic 10-not relative to their record or national ranking, but rather the current state of team and how effective they have been up to this point in the season.
#A10; 3 IN:
#1: Xavier Musketeers (21-6)
Early in the season the out of conference schedule was the only gauge as to how good some of these A10 teams were. Based on how they started, I rated Xavier as the 3rd or 4th best team in the Atlantic 10 going into conference play. My perception was that they were still a threat, but dropped off from last year's Sweet 16 run. A 20 point loss at cross town rival Cincinnati had a bad look to it, as the Musketeers were undersized and taken advantage of by a Bearcats team that dictated the physical style of play on their home court. Pretty much the same scenario with a 9 point loss vs. Old Dominion, the defending Colonial (CAA) champion, a rebound heavy team that doesn't execute the best offensively, but has the muscle to wear you down. However, since a "shot for shot" out of conference performance, taking some lumps as well as dishing out, I would not by any means call impressive they pretty much locked down the Atlantic 10 with authority. The unit started to gel throughout the season as Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons make up one of the best back courts in the country. They sputtered going into conference play with losses to Cincinnati, Old Dominion, Florida and Gonzaga-all solid tournament teams (only home loss was to the Florida Gators) but also a few impressive wins over a talented Seton Hall team (although the record may not indicate), Butler, and defending SoCon champ Wofford. The initial surprise had to be the 1st conference game, when they waxed Rhode Island on the road- a 27 point margin of victory vs. one of the top Atlantic 10 teams that's definitely on the wrong side of the bubble this year. The Dayton, Temple wins @ home, and the win @ Duquesne mark their improvement as the season went on, but I realized they turned it up a notch since the season started, with a 23 point slaughter @ Richmond, probably the 3rd and final Atlantic 10 team that will squeeze into the tournament. Sandwiched in between those conference games was a semi-bracketbuster match up @ Georgia, an SEC bubble team that will likely steal an at large-who the Musketeers dissected in the 2nd half with ease on the road. Xavier likes to run, and their guards press and force a lot of turnovers. They will not slow the game down or buy into their opponents half court sets (i.e the Richmond game), as their intent is to score in the 80-100 point range-they hit this mark, its almost a guaranteed win. This is the best transition team in the Atlantic 10, although Duquesne is a close 2nd.
Good Wins: @Rhode Island, @Richmond, @Duquesne, Seton Hall, Butler, Temple, Wofford, @Georgia, Dayton.
Bad Losses: @Charlotte, @Miami (OH).
#2: Temple Owls (21-6) (ranked #24th in the Nation)
The most consistent team in the Atlantic 10, with a more impressive out of conference resume than Xavier. However, at the moment I have them ranked under the Musketeers who won the head-to-head, although it was a road game for the Owls. A neutral site win vs. Seton Hall to kick the season off was decent, also followed with several wins over top tier conference powers including Georgetown and Maryland. A close 4 point road loss @ big 5 rival Villanova was impressive, although still a loss, and they also took a couple close L's vs. tournament lock Texas A&M, and Cal, who looks like a tournament team 3/4's of the time but have no prayer of getting in unless they win the Pac10 tournament, an unlikely feat with Washington and Arizona as some powerful roadblocks. Temple has only 2 conference losses, both on the road, they haven't lost in their building (Liacouras Center) this year, and with the remaining home game vs. stumbling LaSalle, it will remain that way. They are fresh off a 17 point loss @ Duke, a game they played without their 2nd leading scorer (S.Randall), and a banged up front court-their 1st game in this shorthanded position vs. one of the best teams in college basketball/best home court advantages @ Cameron Indoor in Durham, N.C. Id like to see the Owls get Duke at a neutral site w/o the injuries. They hung around for a bit, but got closed out toward the end. The game hovered around a 12-14 point spread midway through the 2nd half and Temple couldn't close the gap.
Like Xavier, Temple hammered Richmond and Rhode Island for signature wins in conference, combined with a convincing win @ Dayton, and a domination of the lower half of the Atlantic 10-all allowing safe passage for the Owls into the tournament. Both road losses @ Duquesne and Xavier were respectable. I would have to say Temple is the most offensively balanced team in the Atlantic 10, and they can play to any opponents pace and match them for the most part.
Good Wins: Seton Hall, Georgia, Maryland, Georgetown, Rhode Island, Dayton, Richmond.
Bad Losses: None.
#3: Richmond Spiders (21-7)
This is pretty much a spin-off of last years Richmond team, my final 4 dark horse that got knocked out by Saint Mary's after I did a major scouting on their 2nd round Villanova matchup (never happened). Kevin Anderson, arguably the Atlantic 10's best point guard...I'll limit that to the offense they specialize in for now: they operate out of half court sets for the most part and shoot 3's, something they are extremely effective with, combined with them also being one of the best passing teams in the nation-makes for efficiency on almost every possession. Their achilles heel is in the post, where they don't have the frontcourt size to muscle those 2nd chance points. Those 20+ point losses to Xavier and Temple have an ugly sting to them-I would not expect anything other than a close game if the Spiders meet either of those 2 in the conference tournament. Lets not discredit what Richmond has done this season to date. Out of conference they weren't shy about beefing up their schedule. They played 2 of the top 3 teams in the Colonial-@ Old Dominion and at home vs. VCU, splitting the meetings losing at ODU, while beating Virginia Commonwealth at home} 2 teams also on the bubble this year. An 11 point win over top 10 Purdue @ a neutral site is probably the gold star on the resume accompanied by a couple of stripes-a road win @ Seton Hall (granted Hall's leading scorer Hazell was injured) and a road win in Pac 10 country @ Arizona State, who is down this year but still with power conference recruits. The Georgia Tech loss @ a neutral site is an indication of what can happen if Richmond does not shoot the ball well against a bigger team, which does not happen often. The Spiders play good defense, and rely on patience and pinpoint passing to create shots. A typical Richmond game where they control tempo puts the score in the low to mid 60's range, a result of operating out of the half court. When forced to operate against the press, they must be able to break it with their effective passing which is usually what happens. The road win @ Dayton was impressive as the Flyers could not press Richmond successfully, and the pace at which the Spiders were knocking down 3's while slowing the game down was frustrating Dayton. Other than Xavier and Temple ripping through it, if a running team succumbs to the Richmond offense, and ends up in a half court set...that's the Spiders web they just got caught in. The home loss to Rhode Island didn't surprise me-it surprised the bookmakers. URI is one of the better A10 teams and likely went into this game fired up after 2 incredibly bad beatdown losses @home vs. Xavier and on the road @ Florida. It was a tough spot for Richmond to match intensity with the Rams at that point in the season-they get a pass for that loss, it is not considered bad. Other than that, they mowed down the rest of the A10, forced a double OT on the road @ Iona, the likely MAAC representative in the tournament. Richmond has a good chance of winning out-but the final game of the regular season vs. Duquesne is a complete contrast of styles. Whoever dictates the game tempo will take that one, Richmond has the home court advantage and Duquesne MIGHT be starting to tailspin a bit losing 4 of their last 5, all very close. The road game @ Charlotte has its reasons for being a scary match up for the Spiders as well. I think Richmond needs a decent showing in the Atlantic 10 tournament to get an at large bid. They certainly can't afford to lose 2 of their final 3 regular season games either.
Good Wins: Wright State, Purdue, VCU, AZ State, Seton Hall, Dayton
Bad Losses: Bucknell
