Thursday, May 20, 2010

Scope On Contact---Atlanta Braves


Yesterday was profitable- I posted an 8-2 record with 2 pushes* over 12 games. Safe earnings, but I was cringing on those 2 losses because they were close ones- and those of you who bet parlays understand the intense cash turnover of hitting all the games you played--3 runs away from 4 figures... off a 3$ bet. The bright side to an accurate day is laying on each game individually-you earn with balance protection-yesterday the balance increased 33%.
*Pushes= Tie Between Player And Books (returned wager)

I didn't play the Diamondbacks/Giants game (1 of the 3 that I left off my wagers), and also was scarce on giving them credit in the previous entry. My commentary on their pitching did get a few stripes, as I listed starter Ian Kennedy as the teams "Live Arm"- and that night he shut down the Giants, while that hot/cold Arizona offense went to work on Giants starter Todd Wellemeyer and those who followed suit in relief.

Atlanta Braves
Bats:
Torch: OF Jason Heyward/2B Martin Prado
Dead Battery: OF Melky Cabrera/OF Nate McLouth

Arms:
Live: SP Tommy Hanson/SP Tim Hudson
Dead: SP Derek Lowe/SP Kenshin Kawakami

I think there is alot of uncertainty about this team among observers based on what was expected out the gate, and how they have started. I think they are very well structured in terms of their lineup and pitching rotation. They are also starting to get back into shape, pulling themselves to the .500 mark after going through a recent rough stretch. When your stars aren't hitting how they should be and no one is stepping up to back the rotations' quality starts, the wins become scarce. However, one has to think the stars are heating up eventually and I would guess that things are currently moving in that direction. "Dead Battery" candidate Nate McLouth has been struggling so far this year, but finally pulled his batting average over the .200 mark. The production from him and other Braves such as Chipper clicking with the young guns like Prado and Heyward makes for a potent lineup, we are seeing glimpses of. They also have a catcher (McCann) hitting cleanup who can hit 30+ HR's a year and drive in a lofty amount of runs. Heyward is the talk of the town/league, taking the NL by storm in his 1st season-let's hope he keeps it up.
The same principle of late blooming looks to apply to the starting rotation. Nice bounce back year for the oft-injured Tim Hudson, one of the best pitchers in the game in terms of production and longevity, and it doesn't appear that he's lost his touch. Tommy Hanson continues to impress in his starts-but if only he could get more run support. I expect that to change soon as I stated earlier I guess the lineup will hit better than they have. Hanson posts a 3-3 record with an ERA under 3.00. Derek Lowe has been sub-par getting rocked on a few occasions--his ERA sits at over 5.00. The signs of a turnaround might be in the works as he threw a good game vs. Milwaukee last time out in Miller Park a venue he has had past trouble pitching in, beating the Brewers ace Gallardo. Kawakami is also trying to dig himself out of the pits, he is posting an 0-6 record in 8 starts but like Lowe, bounced back on his last start, shutting out an impressive Cincinnati Reds lineup over 6 innings, bringing his ERA to just under 5.00. Their co-ace Jair Jurrjens is still on the DL and didn't start the season well-this would be a nice return to a rotation that looks to be turning around their fortunes. Kris Medlen has filled in admirably in Jurrjens place thus far, but once the scouting reports get studied further, we will see if he can keep it up.
The Braves were projected as dark horses to contend for the NL East when this season started, picked to finish 2nd next to the Phillies by the bookmakers--this has turned out to be one of the more competitive divisions in the league, top to bottom. Right now the Braves sit in 4th and have the tools and expectancy to climb the ladder. This won't be clockwork for them-Im not convinced they are better than the Florida Marlins, and Washington has just been downright impressive. If Atlanta can bring the consistency level up every game they will give all their opponents fits. They are one of the more balanced groups and their bullpen is decent-although no one is sold on their closer situation (Billy Wagner). The clutch hitting needs to take place to solidify consistent winning and I think the Braves have the lineup to do it. I expect a good season from them this year, at the very least fighting for a wild card berth. They play Cincinnati today with Hanson on the mound vs. last years 1st round pick for the Reds, Mike Leake who has been a shutdown starter for them thus far. I like the Braves in this one.

The Board:
(M Leake & T Hanson must start) ATL Braves-1.0 @ -130
(Ryan Dempster & J Blanton must start) PHI Phillies0.0 @ -125
(Nate Robertson & Adam Wainwright must start) FLA Marlins+2.0 @ -170
(Chris Narveson & Paul Maholm must start) PIT Pirates+1.0 @ -135
(Ubaldo Jimenez & Roy Oswalt must start) HOU Astros+1.0 @ -115
(T Lincecum & R Lopez must start) SF Giants-1.0 @ -155
(K Correia & C Kershaw must start) LA Dodgers-1.0 @ -135
(L Hochevar & M Talbot must start) CLE Indians0.0 @ -130
(Jeremy Bonderman & Tyson Ross must start) DET Tigers0.0 @ -117
(R Romero & J Vargas must start) SEA Mariners+1.0 @ -128
(J Shields & Andy Pettitte must start) TB Rays+1.0 @ -115
(Francisco Liriano & Jon Lester must start) MIN Twins+1.0 @ -135
(B Matusz & S Feldman must start) BAL Orioles+1.0 @ -120
(J Maine & Luis Atilano must start) NY Mets0.0 @ +107
(E Santana & Jake Peavy must start) ChC White Sox 0.0 @ -130





No comments:

Post a Comment