CoUnTER ThE AcE

Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox (J.Vargas @ J. Danks)

Couple of things cross my mind in a series that I already expected- notably these 2 teams are on par with each other. When the Mariners get to full strength with their pitching, I give them the edge. Chicago took the series' 1st two games, and today send out their ace Danks. My immediate thought was the White Sox have the pitching advantage here, but I rarely expect sweeps between such 2 closely matched teams. It seems like in recent years Seattle has always given the AL Central teams tough games. Going to the splits, I also noticed in Danks outings vs. the Mariners he gets into trouble and they can hit him. I also noticed that he has better numbers vs. the Seattle hitters in their ballpark (Safeco) as oppose to the Sox park (U.S Cellular). Seattle currently has a different lineup than what has transitioned the last 2 years-it looks better. Seattle sends out Vargas who has pitched respectably thus far-and the White Sox haven't had much of a look at him-he's the "wild card" here; The Seattle Mariners bet will go as far as his pitching performance allows today. On Chicago's side, Danks is a good pitcher, this lofty 1.something ERA is a BIT overachieving-I think he comes back to earth against a Mariners team that has had success on him in the past. He might have a quality start but Seattle is worth a good shot.

Seattle Mariners (+140)

Seattle Mariners +1.5 (-150)

Atlanta Braves @ N.Y Mets (T.Hanson @ M. Pelfrey)

Over the last 3-4 games you might observe these are 2 teams going in opposite directions-an overzealous read. Yes, the Mets are getting better, but the Braves are not getting worse, they just hit a rough patch. The Mets are starting to win, and they actually have a decent bullpen this season as oppose to whats been going on over there in the past. Pelfrey has been exceptional with no losses and an E.R.A under 1-quite uncharacteristic of him, but its early. The Mets are playing very good baseball as of late and it would be a winning stretch to catch if you bet with foresight, but one has to believe there will be some road bumps along the way such is this one. Atlanta is not a bad team, they have lost 4 in a row and are in danger of being swept in New York today. The starter today Hanson, is one of their best and his rookie season last year, he gave the Mets all kinds of hitting troubles. Pelfrey on the other hand gets rattled against the Braves lineup as recent history would suggest. I think Atlanta snaps their 4 game losing streak today in Citi Field.

Atlanta Braves (-115)

BOARD:

(C Richard & H Bailey must start) CIN Reds0.0 @ +102
(Chad Billingsley & S Olsen must start) LA Dodgers0.0 @ -150
(R Wells & D Bush must start) CHI Cubs0.0 @ +104
(Chris Volstad & J De La Rosa must start) FLA Marlins0.0 @ +147
(B Penny & Matt Cain must start) STL Cardinals0.0 @ +110
(T Hanson & M Pelfrey must start) ATL Braves0.0 @ -116
(J Vargas & J Danks must start) SEA Mariners0.0 @ +140
(K Slowey & B Bannister must start) MIN Twins0.0 @ -134
(R Porcello & Colby Lewis must start) DET Tigers0.0 @ +118
(Javier Vazquez & S Kazmir must start) LA Angels0.0 @ +124
(J Masterson & G Gonzalez must start) CLE Indians0.0 @ +101

(D Hernandez & Tim Wakefield must start) BAL Orioles0.0

SeA LeVeL

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (B.Cecil @ M.Garza)

The Rays are heavily favored in this game (-230) ML, rightfully. Rays starter Garza has had the Jays number for years now--if the stats are legible to you, go check the splits out-its ridiculous. Brett Cecil just got called up from Triple A for his 1st start this year, and he should have some momentum going into it after strong showings for the Vegas 51's. Tampa probably has the scariest lineup, but keep in mind they have scored 20+ runs total in their last 2 games. Cecil should come into this game composed and have a respectable outing. There's no reason to think Garza won't shut the Jays bats down. I rarely bet totals, but this scenario calls for a low scoring game. Tampa ML isn't worth it unless you throw it on a parlay.

Total Runs: Under 9 (-145).

Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers (M.Scherzer @ S.Feldman)

For this game decision -im incorporating a few factors into my projected turnover...The Tigers are nearing the end of an AL West marathon, most recently splitting a 4 game series with the Angels yesterday-on the contrary, the Rangers are coming home from an east coast road trip with stops in Cleveland, New York and yesterday avoiding the sweep @ Boston. Detroit has been on the west coast for quite sometime now and less travel miles makes for a fresher Tigers team that coincidentally took the last 2 from the Angels, that just finished a similar road trip to the one Texas took. Angels starter Feldman doesn't have the shiniest numbers against this Detroit lineup, and they have hit him around in the past--he did however, significantly improve as a starting pitcher last year. Detroit starter Scherzer came over from the National League-so the Rangers hitters are for the most part, probably not familiar with him other than scouting reports and pre-majors action. Texas needs wins after a low road trip, but there might be some fatigue in the lineup- and I would speculate the pitching matchup favors the Tigers-but they are the underdogs.

Detroit Tigers (+112)

ThE BoARD:

(C Haeger & Luis Atilano must start) WAS Nationals0.0 @ +110

(K Kawakami & J Maine must start) NY Mets0.0 @ +121
(K Correia & J Cueto must start) CIN Reds0.0 @ -118
(Paul Maholm & Roy Oswalt must start) PIT Pirates0.0 @ +147
(Ryan Dempster & J Suppan must start) CHI Cubs0.0 @ -120
(R Nolasco & G Smith must start) FLA Marlins0.0 @ -111
(M Scherzer & Scott Feldman must start) DET Tigers0.0 @ +111
(C Pavano & G Meche must start) KC Royals0.0 @ +126
(Ryan Rowland-Smith & G Floyd must start) CHI White Sox0.0 @ -121
(B Cecil & M Garza must start) Under9.0 @ -145
(J Garcia & T Lincecum must start) SF Giants0.0 @ -165

DoGs DaY AfTeRNooN

I went against the grain today. 11 bets, 5 moderate to heavy underdogs and only one vastly significant favorite. These are for the most part, series endings.

Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins (M.Talbot @ S.Baker)

Couple of things to address here; The Twins lineup has never faced Talbot before. His 1st couple of innings to start the year were horrid, but i've observed that he has settled in, throwing a complete game his last start vs. the White Sox, and adjusting to the Tigers after getting rocked the 1st couple of times through that order. This is the final of a 3 game series, Minnesota expectedly taking the 1st 2. Today's starter Baker has had big success against this Indians lineup, but at the same time-I dont think Minnesota will hit Talbot too well, as they are unfamiliar with him. I'm not counting on the Twins sweep today, I think Cleveland will put up a good fight and has a good shot @ winning a close one. Both teams can hit, I think the pitching will neutralize this, and the Indians are semi-due for an offensive breakout.

Cleveland Indians (+180)

Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox (CJ Wilson @ C. Buchholz)

This is an interesting series thus far, Boston winning the 1st 2 games by 1 run each. There has been alot of hitting on both sides-notably, the Rangers destroyed Josh Beckett yesterday. This progressive east coast trip hasn't been kind to the Rangers, coincidentally starting in the midwest-@ Progressive Field in Cleveland, final game of that series-where the 6 game losing streak started. They got swept @ Yankee Stadium convincingly, and now, putting up a Green Monster fight in Fenway the 1st two games, but coming up short. Today the Rangers bats face Buchholz who's been able to hold his own against them in the past; nothing spectacular but they don't hit him particularly well. For Texas, CJ Wilson hasn't given up much ground in the starter role, and had an awesome spring training-so from a birds eye view, the sampling looks good over there. This losing streak could snap for the Rangers with authority today. Boston has a bit of a shoulder chip as well getting home swept by the Rays but as potent as the Red Sox lineup is, I could very well see them getting overwhelmed today.

Texas Rangers (+138)

Game List:

(R Wolf & D McCutchen must start) PIT Pirates0.0 @ +144

(Ubaldo Jimenez & L Hernandez must start) WAS Nationals0.0 @ +161
(V Padilla & M Leake must start) CIN Reds0.0 @ +108
(Tom Gorzelanny & J Santana must start) NY Mets0.0 @ -167
(J Moyer & D Lowe must start) ATL Braves0.0 @ -140
(A Sanchez & F Paulino must start) FLA Marlins0.0 @ -124
(M Talbot & S Baker must start) CLE Indians0.0 @ +180
(C Sabathia & D Braden must start) OAK Athletics0.0 @ +163
(C.J. Wilson & C Buchholz must start) TEX Rangers0.0 @ +138
(J Shields & Jake Peavy must start) CHI White Sox0.0 @ -116
(J Verlander & Joe Saunders must start) DET Tigers0.0 @ -115

HeNNePiN TaRGeTS/SkY DoME CaRPeTS

Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins (D. Huff @ F.Liriano)

Nothing is 100%-meaning we all miss sometimes and parity w/in the sport of choice must be respected. I didn't try to sneak a heavy fave in here, but the Twins get a (-180) money line. This is one of the more interesting series playing right now, considering both matchup and location, the new stadium in Minneapolis (Target Field). The Twins have taken well to their new home thus far and Liriano has been dominant vs. all hitters, all spring. Cleveland is a tough team and that offense is quite potent. It will be tough for the Twins to sweep the Indians- however, they took game 1 yesterday, and tonight points in that same direction. Indians starter David Huff has had a strong start- in my sampling pickups over the last 2 years, the Minnesota lineup gives him fits-hitting him well, and manufacturing runs. The pitching matchup favors the Twins, and the run support will likely be there to follow. I think Cleveland has a strong upset case tomorrow, stay tuned.

Minnesota Twins (-180)

Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays (Z.Greinke @ S.Marcum)

I had to throw an even line up to further some credibility here-this might be a nailbiter.

KC starter Zack Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball. No team really hits him all that well, but of all his opponents-the Jays are near the top...Greinke has had trouble in the Sky Dome on a few occasions. This is a day game-final of a 3 game series that Toronto can redeem sweep after getting absolutely violated by the Angels. Coming off the Tommy John surgery hasn't seemed to be a hindrance to Jays starter Marcum. All signs point that he hasn't lost stride-if this is the case, Kansas City wont get anything on him, the Royals lineup hits .155 against him and he dominated them in his 08' full season. No matter how well they are playing prior to a Toronto series, Kansas City seems to always have problems in the Sky Dome. I expect a sweep here, but as I said at the top, this is a risky matchup. Kansas City can now hit relatively well, and Greinke's track record on the mound speaks for itself. He gets fits in the Dome, and thats what Im banking on.

Toronto Blue Jays (-103)

The Order:

(Josh Johnson & B Norris must start) FLA Marlins0.0 @ -152

(H Kuroda & Aaron Harang must start) LA Dodgers0.0 @ -126
(Zack Greinke & Shaun Marcum must start) TOR Blue Jays0.0 @ -101
(J Hammel & J Lannan must start) WAS Nationals0.0 @ -101
(Roy Halladay & T Hudson must start) PHI Phillies0.0 @ -155
(Y Gallardo & Zach Duke must start) MIL Brewers0.0 @ -132
(C Silva & O Perez must start) CHI Cubs0.0 @ -101
(P Hughes & Ben Sheets must start) OAK Athletics0.0 @ +130
(W Davis & Mark Buehrle must start) CHI White Sox0.0 @ -110
(Chris Carpenter & Conor Jackson must start) ARI Diamondbacks0.0 @ +139
(K Millwood & Felix Hernandez must start) SEA Mariners0.0 @ -200
(D Huff & Francisco Liriano must start) MIN Twins0.0 @ -184

ThE FooD ChAiN

St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks (K. Lohse vs. D.Haren)

This is one of the rare opportunities Arizona will likely get to beat the Cardinals because of a favorable pitching matchup- St. Louis has won their last 2, and have been getting run production in the late innings, both games were catch ups for them (vs. the Mets prior, AZ yesterday). Haren has the potential to shut them out despite St. Louis hitters like Holliday starting to heat up. Pujols hasn't done much the last 2 games, but they are getting offensive contributions from a couple other spots in the lineup (Ludwick, Rasmus etc.). Cardinals starter Lohse has good #s vs. Arizona as well. My thoughts are that Dan Haren is the shutdown corner here-however, if the Cardinals get to him early, I think its a done deal. It won't be easy-I think Arizona will take a 1 run game and snap their 4 game skid.

Arizona Diamondbacks (-138)

Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox (D. Price vs. J. Danks)

What Tampa is doing right now shouldn't be too much of a surprise-4 game sweep in Boston-breezing through that Red Sox rotation like a natural disaster...and for that matter take a look at the Rays rotation: Garza could get a CY if he keeps this up-well capable, and the run support is always there. The rest of the rotation carries their weight as well, they are going to be a tough catch in the AL East. Tonight the Rays take on a slumping White Sox team that got swept out in Cleveland. This series will determine whether White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen will have something degrading/entertaining to say to the national media about his team, to try and restore some kind of a spark. I will say this, the White Sox are not as bad as their record would indicate- and they will likely lose this home series to the Rays. Sox starter John Danks has had the Rays # the last few years- his numbers are outstanding against this lineup. Rays starter Price has pitched once in U.S Cellular and the White Sox hit him around a bit scoring 4 in 6 innings. Scare tactic here is that Price is progressively getting better, this is only his 2nd year. The Rays are probably the best team at manufacturing runs but Danks has the potential to keep them all off base today. If Chicago is going to take any game in this series, tonight is their best shot.

Chicago White Sox (+103)

Florida Marlins @ Houston Astros (C.Volstad vs. B. Myers)

In the off-season, pitchers make adjustments-in Brett Myers case, you would hope he did in relation to tonight's game in Minute Maid Park. A new ballpark and change of scenery can also be helpful, but your playing with fire running with it unless you see the adjustments 1st hand. What Im saying is, the Marlins absolutely destroyed newly acquired Astros starter Brett Myers when he was with the Phillies. The last 3 seasons vs. Florida, he is 1-6 in 7 games started, with an 8.01 ERA. Of course you now have to exclude ex-Florida hitters like Josh Willingham (Nationals) and Jeremy Hermida (Red Sox) who are no longer in the lineup but they have been replaced-and Florida's big dogs, Ramirez, Uggla and Cantu all smash Myers around. Its a scary time to bet against the Astros because they are starting to win a bit and will probably end up finishing closer to .500 than people would think. If Volstad can keep his cool tonight and not get shelled he will probably get all the run support he needs to pick up a W.

Florida Marlins (-109)

The Board:

(J De La Rosa & S Olsen must start) COL Rockies0.0 @ -140
(D Bush & C Morton must start) PIT Pirates0.0 @ +115
(Chad Billingsley & H Bailey must start) LA Dodgers0.0 @ -131
(D Price & J Danks must start) CHI White Sox0.0 @ +103
(D Hernandez & J Vargas must start) BAL Orioles0.0 @ +128
(K Lohse & D Haren must start) ARI Diamondbacks0.0 @ -138
(Chris Volstad & Brett Myers must start) FLA Marlins0.0 @ -109
(Carlos Zambrano & M Pelfrey must start) CHI Cubs0.0 @ +100
(R Porcello & S Kazmir must start) DET Tigers+1.0 @ -140
(Javier Vazquez & G Gonzalez must start) NY Yankees-1.0 @ -150
(K Davies & Dana Eveland must start) KC Royals+1.0 @ -125
(J Masterson & K Slowey must start) MIN Twins-1.0 @ -140

Oriole Redemption

Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles (Niemann vs. Matusz)

Today I threw an underdog up for the write up. Baltimore hosts Tampa for game 2 of the 3 game series. Guthrie was solid yesterday (7 innings, 3 runs)-Garza was better-Rays won. I think the Orioles take game 2, Niemann doesn't have good tags in Camden Yards and Baltimore will protect their house. Matusz is starting for the Orioles tonight, and Brian Roberts is unfortunately still injured-but aside from that, I think Baltimore snaps the 4 game skid. I think very highly of the Rays but its a long season and they're gonna get some speeding tickets along the way, and Im predicting they catch one tonight.

Baltimore Orioles (+116)

Also:

LA Angels@ NY Yankees (-170) {Santana@Pettite}

Arizona DBacks @ LA Dodgers (-165) {Kennedy@Kershaw}

Cincinnati Reds@ Florida Marlins (-120) {Arroyo@Robertson}

Yankees, Marlins, Dodgers Win;

Squaring Off With My Cities

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (Blackburn @ Buerhle)
The White Sox have dropped their last 3- the 1st 2 in extras to Cleveland, then Minnesota before dropping their 2nd in a row to the Twins yesterday in a 2-1 pitchers duel. No rubber game for the White Sox in this series, this 3rd one is more like a "salvage" game and Im waiting to see what kind of noise Sox manager Ozzie Guillen will stir up in the media after this unfortunate start for his squad (record of 1-4). The Twins have been polar opposites to their contending counterparts, and I wouldn't expect much different throughout the season, they are stacked all over the spectrum of that lineup/rotation. Today the White Sox send out lefty ace Mark Buerhle who has a knack for shutting down the Twins in U.S Cellular. This is the White Sox best and last shot to avoid a home sweep in opening week to the team they will probably be chasing for the AL Central crown. The Twins send out Nick Blackburn who has started his season strong out the gate the last 2 years. Minnesota has opened the season with 6 straight road games as well as today before they start play at their new home, the Target Center. I think the White Sox steal this one in the series, but it will surely be a close game. With that lineup the Minnesota Twins will always put up a fight.
Chicago White Sox (-123)

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
The Blue Jays won the 1st 2 at Camden Yards this year, shutting out Baltimore 3-0 yesterday. Jays starter Sean Marcum doesn't have his best performances in this ballpark as recent history would suggest, and the fact that Baltimore got shut out yesterday doesn't help his cause for a win either. The Orioles sends the vet Millwood to the mound in order to snap this home losing streak to the Jays I would expect him to avoid the sweep for his ball club. A key component to the Orioles success with the bat and baserunning is injured (2B Brian Roberts), a definite setback to them. I think the Orioles hold Marcum to an average outing, and Millwood throws an exceptional game-this being his 1st start in his new home park, Camden Yards.
Baltimore Orioles (-117)

Take To The Waters...

L.A Dodgers@ Florida Marlins (V.Padilla vs. J.Johnson)

Seems like the perfect scenario to take Florida. Kuroda shut down the Marlins bats yesterday and the Dodgers cakewalked (I expected). Marlins send their ace Josh Johnson out vs. Dodger vet Vincente Padilla, I expect the former to go deep into the game and pick up the win. Florida can hit, plain and simple and they will have the security of good starting pitching today. It is crucial that the Marlins win the games that Johnson and Nolasco start. The rest of the rotation is suspect to say the least, and in the #3,4,5 spots the Marlins will probably have to rely heavily on outstanding hitting to pull of W's.

Florida Marlins (-150)

Seattle Mariners@Texas Rangers (F.Hernandez vs. M.Harrison)

Seattle has been on a losing streak since the Oakland series and in the wrong circumstances, it would get no easier in Texas. However, today presents good circumstances for the Mariners. The dominance shifts from strong pitching (Oakland) to a hitters park and the bats to back it (Texas) as opposition to the Mariners. Seattle sends out Felix Hernandez, dubbed "King Felix" to handle the Texas lineup. He has an excellent pitching history in Arlington, TX-incredible numbers against the Rangers bats in general. The hype with Felix speaks for itself and more often than not, as observers we know what to expect from him. Matt Harrison has decent #s against the Mariners and you can probably expect a good performance out of him also-although generally he is not very good. If the Mariners are looking to snap a losing streak, or at least until Cliff Lee returns-Felix is the starter to trust.

Seattle Mariners (-150)

Remainders:

(Carlos Zambrano & Aaron Harang must start) CHI Cubs0.0 @ +111

(J Garcia & Y Gallardo must start) MIL Brewers0.0 @ -133
(J Moyer & F Paulino must start) PHI Phillies0.0 @ -137
(V Padilla & Josh Johnson must start) FLA Marlins0.0 @ -150
(M Talbot & Jeremy Bonderman must start) CLE Indians0.0 @ +144
(D Lowe & T Wellemeyer must start) ATL Braves0.0 @ -124
(J Beckett & Zack Greinke must start) KC Royals0.0 @ +109
(Felix Hernandez & Matt Harrison must start) SEA Mariners0.0 @ -150
(C Sabathia & W Davis must start) NY Yankees0.0 @ -138
(Dana Eveland & D Hernandez must start) BAL Orioles0.0 @ -144
(M Latos & J Hammel must start) SD Padres0.0 @ +136

Feature:Dodgers@Pirates, Cubs@Braves

L.A Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Game 3 of series) [RF Ramirez-OUT]

There is no reason to be surprised the Pirates took the 1st 2 games of this series. Duke and Ohlendorf are good pitchers, and if you look at the Pirates lineup there is alot of talent with the bats, with Jones, McCutchen and Doumit. Adding Iwamura seems to me like a good move, but the remainder of the season will tell. Dodgers starter Billingsley has pitched well in day games throughout his young career and considering the Pirates took the 1st 2, Ill give Dodgers credit for avoiding the sweep. For the Pirates, Maholm is an underrated starter who looks brilliant at times. He throws well at home, not the best in day games-throughout his young career. I think he will have a decent start today, but the Dodgers win close.

L.A Dodgers (-150)

Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves (Game 3 of series)

The Cubs are heavy underdogs here, the line opened at (+175). I figured Atlanta would be favored b/c of starter Tommy Hanson who had an amazing rookie year (11-4, 2.90 ERA), and the home field aspect, but not this heavily favored. Also, my opinion on constituting a favorite doesn't necessarily mean I expect them to win. This is one of those cases.

The Cubs send out starter Randy Wells who pitched well for them last campaign,(12-10 3.05 ERA). Atlanta can hit, and the Cubs can as well but I'm expecting a pitchers duel here. Whatever happens when the starters get pulled is fair game though as far as manufacturing runs goes. Losing the 1st 2 games of the series, I think the Cubs pull it together and leave Turner Field with a win, avoiding the 3 game road sweep.

Chicago Cubs (+175)

Heres The List:

(Chad Billingsley & Paul Maholm must start) LA Dodgers0.0 @ -150
(B Penny & Bronson Arroyo must start) STL Cardinals0.0 @ -110
(R Wells & T Hanson must start) CHI Cubs0.0 @ +175
(D Willis & B Bannister must start) KC Royals0.0 @ -116
(R Romero & C.J. Wilson must start) TOR Blue Jays0.0 @ +144
(D Fister & B Anderson must start) SEA Mariners0.0 @ +153
(B Matusz & J Niemann must start) BAL Orioles0.0 @ +160
(J Masterson & G Floyd must start) CHI White Sox0.0 @ -136
(K Slowey & J Pineiro must start) MIN Twins0.0 @ +113

Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals

Detroit Tigers @ KC Royals
Arguably the closest knit division in baseball, the American League Central tends to contain well rounded teams, and there does not appear to be much of a heirarchy in the division. We know Kansas City and Cleveland are expected to round out the bottom, but between the White Sox, Twins and Tigers-1st place could likely end up coming down to a 1 game playoff (again). Unless we get some surprises, KC and Cleveland don't have the back end of their pitching rotations, or bullpens to stretch a healthy amount of wins through this season. With all the off-season acquisitions however, it looks like we are in for a competitive race between the projected top 3 teams in the Central.
Arizona Diamondbacks' youthful cornerstone prospect Max Scherzer was dealt to Detroit primarily for hard throwing RH, Edwin Jackson. He blossomed with a few slip ups his rookie year with the D'Backs, but the upside was incredible and the potential on him was outstanding. I bet alot on the D'Backs when he took the mound for a start, and more often than not, whether I played a straight win or a +1 or 2 (run line) they took care of business. I expect a good start from Scherzer tonight, but he could get a bit jittery in the new uniform and an opposing ballpark-even so, I would give the Tigers the merit here. Me favoring Detroit in this game has more to do with Scherzer's counterpart on the mound. KC Royals starter Luke Hochevar still has a tall ceiling to reach, with a bit of experience under his belt and being a highly touted prospect out of the U of Tennessee. He hasn't produced consistently thus far, although showing flashes of brilliance on occasion. I am not willing to count him out yet, but I have seen his numbers and performances against this Detroit Tigers lineup and the results are ugly-they pretty much hammer him every outing. I understand this is a different season, and these pitchers fine tune their mechanics to the point where Hochevar may very well just go out there and shut down all the Tiger bats...but that would be wishful thinking for a Royals fan. It is my belief that Detroit takes the 1st two games in Kansas City, tonight's being the 2nd.
Detroit Tigers (-130).

: Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Colorado vs. Milwaukee
Lets start with the similarities. First, Both play in parks owned by prestigious American breweries. Also, both are somewhat in the Midwest region of the U.S- Colorado more so in the Mountain West like the NCAA conference states (what up Chris). Both play in hitters parks, Colorado obviously being more famous for this feat with their intense altitude level, playing on "higher ground". Today's matchup is the 2nd game in this series, Colorado taking the 1st in an ace vs. ace battle (Jimenez vs. Gallardo). Today the Brewers send out newly acquired veteran starter Randy Wolf, a model of consistency throughout his career. The Rockies current roster is batting .216 against him, and although historically he hasn't had much success pitching in Miller Park, keep in mind he was the opposing pitcher everytime he had an outing there. Its now his home ball park, and he had better get used to it, being Milwaukee's no. 2 starter in the rotation. Although early in the season, it will be somewhat important that he makes a good impression tonight, and pitching against a team that has struggled to hit him in the past is a bonus. Also being @ home, and the fact that the Brewers lost yesterday gives me enough of a reason to expect a (W) from Milwaukee tonight. The Rockies send out starting pitcher Greg Smith, in place of often injured Canadian starter Jeff Francis who is spending the start of the season on the DL (again). Greg Smith doesn't give off much of a sampling vs. the Brewers lineup-only Carlos Gomez is 2/3 vs. G. Smith with a HR...and Gomez doesn't really hit home runs.
Milwaukee Brewers (-1) @ -125.

Spectrum is Horizon League vs. ACC**(A Baseball Look As Well)**

Butler Bulldogs vs. Duke Blue Devils

I didn't expect either of these teams to get this far in the tournament, I actually had both teams getting knocked out in the second round...interestingly enough, the teams I had knocking them out respectively (Louisville, Vanderbilt) did not get a chance to, unable to survive elimination in the 1st round. They are to my surprise, in the title game, and although not the 2 best teams in the NCAA this year-we are in for a compelling game. Michigan State lost big to UNC in Detroit last year, dubbed a "home court" for them. Duke isn't last years North Carolina team, and Butler has done nothing to disprove their consistency. Win or lose, chalk one up for the mid-majors, and the Horizon League. Butler +8.

Baseball Plays:

**Minnesota Twins (+1) @ LA Angels {S.Baker @ J.Weaver}

**Seattle Mariners @ Oakland A's (+1) {F.Hernandez @ B.Sheets}

Title Game: Dire Circumstances, Devils & Dogs

Since this pairing in the title game will make one throw those 3 initials out and a question mark (wtf?), let me clear this road to the Final 4 for both these teams. To begin, after observing the Butler Bulldogs in recent years, it is my opinion that they transfer from the Horizon League to a more competitive conference such as the Missouri Valley for instance. They would match up with such teams as Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Creighton etc. as oppose to the level of competition they face in the Horizon and would NOT go undefeated in THAT conference...I can think of a few MVC venues they would almost certainly take losses in. The Horizon League has some decent teams, notably Wright State, Cleveland State and the Wisconsin schools, but after this year and other than Cleveland State's breakout LY-I have determined that its not even close between them and the Bulldogs.
Duke had a good run in the ACC, and it was easy to see that they got a bit tougher this year than the last 2. They got the 4th No. 1 seed...some would say they didn't deserve it but they are in the title game, obviously making the most of it. Both teams faced serious gauntlets to get this far, but let me clarify the breaks...and there were alot of them. We would not be having this commentary right now about these two teams if normalcies were at work.
Here's an outline of each sequence:

Butler Bulldogs
Round 1 vs. UTEP: Butler beats CUSA regular season champ UTEP; expected, mildly impressive. Big 2nd half, 77-59 win.

Round 2 vs. Murray State: Instead of Vanderbilt, Butler faces OVC champ Murray State-likely an easier matchup for them. Butler holds on 54-52 in a close one.

Round 3 vs. Syracuse: Syracuse center (Onuaku) out 3rd game straight. Butler holds off disrupted Orange who find it hard getting into a rhythm and succumb to the half court game. Butler wins 63-59.

Round 4 vs. Kansas State: Kansas State tired from double OT win over Xavier (101-96), gets a short breather before having to face a fresher Butler team. K-State was able to stay close, but also succame to the slower game tempo-generating a low scoring loss for the Wildcats. Butler wins, 63-56.

Round 5 (Final 4) vs. Michigan State: Michigan State's 3rd game without starting PG Lucas, although impressive w/o him in close wins over Northern Iowa, Tennessee. MSU had no transtion motives with Luscious at the PG spot. Played a half court game into Butlers hands, got into foul trouble. MSU short a key ball handler. Bulldogs win 52-50 and make the title game.

Duke Blue Devils
Round 1 vs. Pine Bluff: Duke gets the last tournament team in- the "play-in" winner,
Arkansas Pine-Bluff. APB is crushed, 73-44.

Round 2 vs. California: Instead of facing the more physical Louisville matchup, they get a similar team to themselves, the finesse, shooter heavy Cal Golden Bears. With more size and toughness, Duke pulls away from Cal, 68-53 final.

Round 3 vs. Purdue: Purdue got a 4 seed in the tournament b/c of play down the stretch w/o their best player, and injured center Hummel. Purdue got through the 1st 2 rounds through this setback, eventually losing to Duke, 70-57. Clearly would have been a different game with PU @ 100%.

Round 4 vs. Baylor: Baylor should have a 4 pt. lead with 3 mins to go, instead Duke center doesn't get his 5th foul, draws imaginary charge and Duke gets the ball back with momentum. Duke capitalizes, hits 3's and a single tech. assessed to a Baylor player, and not Duke guard Scheyer for swinging elbows. Duke gets by Baylor, predominantly on refs calls to close the game. Duke wins, 78-71.

Round 5 (Final 4) vs. West Virginia: West Virginia's 3rd game without starting PG Truck Bryant. Mazulla played well previous 2 vs. Washington, Kentucky but is a limited scoring option. Not much of a threat yesterday as WV struggled to find a rhythm. Duke's top 3 scorers (Singler, Scheyer, Smith) also had big games. A WV team w/ Bryant would have been a more dangerous draw for the Devils. Kudos to Duke on the win, but yesterday they didn't face the same West Virginia team that co-dominated the Big East this year. Duke wins big, 78-57.

Niether of these teams are the 2 best in college basketball this year, they both capitalized on unforseeable circumstances and favorable draws/matchups. Nonetheless, congratulations are in order for both of them as they had to overcome tremendous odds to reach this title game.

Tournament Expansion

This is a special edition entry before I get up tomorrow's Final Four predictions. I wanted to discuss a topic of intrigue that has been buzzing the last day or two. Word on the street is the NCAA is going to expand the March Madness Tournament to 96 teams from its current amount of 64. Im not going to get into my opinion on this matter, or criticize the decision--first off, you would think this is good for me b/c there will be more games to bet on. This isn't necessarily true-the NIT and even CBI and that other one that Missouri West won would probably get squashed out...unless the NIT still exists and operates as is- taking teams #97-#129.

I decided to make a list of 32 schools that I thought could do some damage in tournament this year, but didn't make the final cuts. I made a rule to follow when compiling this list: If a team had less than 18 wins by the end of their conference tournament regardless of strength of schedule/signature wins, they didn't make this list (North Carolina, Connecticut). This expansion I believe should favor those teams with good records as oppose to any other variable that may present itself to the selection committee to keep a team in or out of the brackets. I also think it should focus more on the mid major schools, but a team with a good overall record from a BCS conference should definitely be highly considered (Mississippi State). This is in no specific order, however the teams that stick out as most worthy are at the top.

Teams W/L

1. Dayton Flyers------------------------25-12

2. Rhode Island Rams------------------26-10

3. Mississippi State Bulldogs----------24-12

4. Virginia Commonwealth Rams-----27-9

5. UAB Blazers---------------------------25-9

5. Virginia Tech Hokies-----------------25-9

6. Seton Hall Pirates--------------------19-13

7. Northeastern Huskies----------------20-13

8. Charleston Cougars-------------------22-12

9. Memphis Tigers-----------------------24-10

10. Wichita State Shockers-------------25-10

11. William & Mary Tribe---------------22-11

12. Cincinnati Bearcats------------------19-16

13. Miami Hurricanes-------------------20-13

14. Ole Miss Rebels----------------------24-11

15. Charlotte 49ers-----------------------19-12

16. Saint Louis Billikens-----------------23-13

17. West Carolina Catamounts----------22-12

18. Appalachian State Mountaineers---24-13

19. Weber State Wildcats----------------20-11

20. Arizona State Sun Devils------------22-11

21. Morehead State Eagles---------------24-11

22. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers-----21-13

23. Illinois Fighting Illini----------------21-15

24. South Florida Bulls------------------20-13

25. Pacific Tigers-------------------------23-12

26. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs------------24-11

27. Portland Pilots-----------------------21-11

28. Illinois State Redbirds--------------22-11

29. Missouri State Bears----------------24-12

30. Wright State Raiders---------------20-12

31. Iona Gaels----------------------------21-10

32. Northern Colorado Bears----------25-8

33. Fairfield Stags-----------------------23-11

**33. Fairfield Stags vs. N. Colorado play-in game

Thats it.

N.I.T Title; Dayton vs. North Carolina

Dayton vs. UNC
I should just put up a couple pics and write "Dayton got this". Im not going to elaborate any further; I predicted once the bracket was released that Dayton would win the N.I.T. It won't be easy as Carolina is playing at a higher level than they did all year. I didn't think UNC would get by Rhode Island, they barely did with some help from the refs, and PRIMARILY b/c URI choked and missed FT's down the stretch. I can't say Im not worried about Dayton choking in this spot, but if they do lose the game, it will be within the last minute. This is the same Dayton team that knocked out West Virginia in the 1st round of the NCAA's last year-they have just become a bit more erratic and have lost most of the close games they won the previous year. Since their bracket draw, they seem to have corrected this problem. To give UNC credit as well, they ran through one hell of a gauntlet to get to this final, knocking off Miss. State, and UAB on the road, then beating Rhode Island a couple nights back. When Dayton is on, I think they can beat anyone in the country. I hope the refs don't decide this game on some questionable calls, or momentum shift. If all plays out properly, the Flyers got this. Dayton (-2)