Sunday, April 25, 2010

CoUnTER ThE AcE



Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox (J.Vargas @ J. Danks)
Couple of things cross my mind in a series that I already expected- notably these 2 teams are on par with each other. When the Mariners get to full strength with their pitching, I give them the edge. Chicago took the series' 1st two games, and today send out their ace Danks. My immediate thought was the White Sox have the pitching advantage here, but I rarely expect sweeps between such 2 closely matched teams. It seems like in recent years Seattle has always given the AL Central teams tough games. Going to the splits, I also noticed in Danks outings vs. the Mariners he gets into trouble and they can hit him. I also noticed that he has better numbers vs. the Seattle hitters in their ballpark (Safeco) as oppose to the Sox park (U.S Cellular). Seattle currently has a different lineup than what has transitioned the last 2 years-it looks better. Seattle sends out Vargas who has pitched respectably thus far-and the White Sox haven't had much of a look at him-he's the "wild card" here; The Seattle Mariners bet will go as far as his pitching performance allows today. On Chicago's side, Danks is a good pitcher, this lofty 1.something ERA is a BIT overachieving-I think he comes back to earth against a Mariners team that has had success on him in the past. He might have a quality start but Seattle is worth a good shot.
Seattle Mariners (+140)
Seattle Mariners +1.5 (-150)

Atlanta Braves @ N.Y Mets (T.Hanson @ M. Pelfrey)
Over the last 3-4 games you might observe these are 2 teams going in opposite directions-an overzealous read. Yes, the Mets are getting better, but the Braves are not getting worse, they just hit a rough patch. The Mets are starting to win, and they actually have a decent bullpen this season as oppose to whats been going on over there in the past. Pelfrey has been exceptional with no losses and an E.R.A under 1-quite uncharacteristic of him, but its early. The Mets are playing very good baseball as of late and it would be a winning stretch to catch if you bet with foresight, but one has to believe there will be some road bumps along the way such is this one. Atlanta is not a bad team, they have lost 4 in a row and are in danger of being swept in New York today. The starter today Hanson, is one of their best and his rookie season last year, he gave the Mets all kinds of hitting troubles. Pelfrey on the other hand gets rattled against the Braves lineup as recent history would suggest. I think Atlanta snaps their 4 game losing streak today in Citi Field.
Atlanta Braves (-115)

BOARD:
(C Richard & H Bailey must start) CIN Reds0.0 @ +102
(Chad Billingsley & S Olsen must start) LA Dodgers0.0 @ -150
(R Wells & D Bush must start) CHI Cubs0.0 @ +104
(Chris Volstad & J De La Rosa must start) FLA Marlins0.0 @ +147
(B Penny & Matt Cain must start) STL Cardinals0.0 @ +110
(T Hanson & M Pelfrey must start) ATL Braves0.0 @ -116
(J Vargas & J Danks must start) SEA Mariners0.0 @ +140
(K Slowey & B Bannister must start) MIN Twins0.0 @ -134
(R Porcello & Colby Lewis must start) DET Tigers0.0 @ +118
(Javier Vazquez & S Kazmir must start) LA Angels0.0 @ +124
(J Masterson & G Gonzalez must start) CLE Indians0.0 @ +101

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