#BigEast: Threats and Pests

There are 11 teams that will likely represent the Big East Conference in the NCAA tournament-by far more than any other conference. I will be breaking down each team briefly, explaining my take on why this team will be a "threat" (deep run) or a "pest"(early exit) in the March Madness field. Unlike the selection committee, I'll be looking at the particular teams strengths, weaknesses and current state of play, rather than what they've accomplished throughout the whole season-targeting where I may find an unfavorable match up for the squad in question, but it all depends on who they draw. School 2 School in alphabetical order:

Cincinnati Bearcats (24-7 NR):
Threat- They started the season 15-0, dominated their non-conference schedule the selection committee considers soft-for the most part correct. Still 20 and 30 point wins over Xavier and Dayton respectively were very impressive. They held their own in Big East play as well after a questionable start. This team is very strong in the post, and they have good upperclassmen guards. Cincinnati will be a tough match up for anyone in the tournament, they don't have a blatant weakness and will not get blown out.. However, if it seems like an even match up, the Bearcats have a tendency to play to their opponents, and I don't necessarily trust them in close games. They get the "threat" title because it looks as though they've shifted into 5th gear in the last quarter. From an opponents standpoint, I would not want to draw them, but Cincinnati must prepare well once their counterpart(s) are determined-or they will be trading baskets with frustration.

Connecticut Huskies (21-9 #16):
Pest-Their success in the non-conference schedule is amazing, but they have dropped off a bit. They're a very young team and it looks like the wear and tear of the season has cooled them off some. I could very well see this team getting a 5 or a 6 seed and getting knocked off by an 11 or 12- a seeding that a team such as UNLV or Old Dominion may get. I'd rather not pass negative judgment on the Huskies yet but I will assume it, because of the lack of experience this unit has together. Calhoun is a good coach and Kemba Walker has proven clutch, and can take over a game-however there is a good chance they catch a tough draw they will not have the know-how to contain. This is a very good team, but again there has been a noticeable drop off this last quarter of the season.

Georgetown Hoyas (21-9 #17):
Pest-Bad break for the Hoyas. One of the more consistent and best teams in the conference all year loses their senior starting point guard, the prime distributor/ball handler that enables the rest of the Hoyas marksmen to shoot at an excruciatingly high % (11th in the nation). The injury to Chris Wright 3 games back has taken its toll (0-3) . They could get this hole fixed in the conference tournament once the backup Starks get his feet wet a bit @ PG, but this will be a big problem for them in the NCAA tournament-and unless this ship gets righted, just like last year-a solid season will be followed by another 1st round exit.

Louisville Cardinals (23-8 #11):
Threat- Louisville is infamous for the press + they like to get into transition. Last year they tried to press Cal, which didn't work as the Bears passed well and shot the lights out-knocking out the Cardinals round 1 behind a fast start. That's the danger here-a skilled passing team that can break the press will give that Cardinals' defense problems, but on the other side of the ball they have no problems scoring. If Louisville gets forced into a half court game it favors their opponent as they are rocked into that style, although it doesn't necessarily mean they will lose. They have many play makers led by PG Siva who sets the rhythm. IMO this years Cardinals team looks better than the last- and Louisville lost a lot of seniors/starters in what most would consider a "rebuilding" year. They have played far beyond expectations and should be well prepared to give their opponents fits on the other side of the bracket.

Marquette Golden Eagles (18-13 NR):
Pest- No guarantees Marquette gets in the field, but as of now they are the 11th and final Big East team in the NCAA tournament. The word I would use to describe this team is "scrappy", they play at an extremely fast pace, and like to get up and down the floor-similar to the philosophy taught at Louisville, or Dayton in the Atlantic 10. They're usually right there down to the last possession at the end of every game, but for the most part-they have trouble pulling out the "W" in these situations. They've also stumbled down the stretch in Big East play and although they had a brutal schedule, a (9-9) record in conference doesn't allow for much faith in this team. Marquette is more impressive because of their close losses rather than wins, and I can almost guarantee that their tournament draw will get all they can handle from the Eagles. Marquette will almost certainly be a double-digit seed in their Region, and will get a tough draw in the 1st round they can most likely hang with, but not defeat-This all depends on the match up of course.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (25-5 #7)
Pest- I'm either very confident in my expectations or just stubborn to have the current #7th ranked team in the nation with this record classified as a "pest" rather than a "threat". Not to take anything away from their accomplishments this season, but even if they manage to clear the 1st 2 rounds, I doubt they will get out of the sweet 16. They are a very crafty team, very well coached and will play to their opponents weaknesses. They held Pitt to a half court game on their home floor which was the best strategy vs. the Panthers, but at the same time they can also go into transition, with some deadly 3 point shooters (Hansbrough, Abromaitis). The knock on them is this: at some point in the tournament 1 of their match ups is guaranteed to be a team that will muscle them on the boards and wont allow much room for the Irish to operate freely on the perimeter- this neutralizes a very strong passing team, blinding the lanes and taking away Notre Dame's strength, which is shot creation off the assist. They don't run very deep as Coach Brey plays a 7 man rotation which could also hurt them in the later rounds if they make it that far. It will be difficult for Notre Dame to get into a power struggle with a physical team as witnessed vs. Old Dominion last year when they were eliminated. Granted, this Irish team is better than that one-but I believe that weakness is still imminent.

Pittsburgh Panthers (27-4 #5):
Threat- This Pitt team is the most dominant in the conference-almost certain protection of their home court, and have proven they don't get rattled in any road venue long enough to let a game get away from them. This particular unit has gelled after playing together for the last 2 years, on top of seemingly doing everything well on the court, they have been groomed by solid coaching. I wouldn't say they're the hottest team in the Big East right now, but they've consistently been playing the best basketball all year in the conference. Its going to be tough for anyone to knock the Panthers out of the NCAA tournament, although I am skeptical their physical style of play may be discredited by a group of foreign conference officials they may draw along with a more finesse opponent. Nonetheless, a deep tournament run probably is in order for Pitt.

St. Johns Red Storm (20-10 #15)
Pest- Hats off to St. John's for finishing the season strong after kind of feeling themselves out through the non-conference schedule and early in Big East play. This is expected with a coaching turnover, as coach Lavin had to get a senior laden team to buy into a new system he has got working and turned the Red Storm into a tough opponent for the top teams in the nation. This is a group where one can't necessarily criticize what they accomplished or lack-there-of in their non-conference schedule. They were still under Lavin's learning curve, hence they were involved in quite a few close games with teams they should have dominated and ran out of any building (Ball State, Fordham etc). Since then, it looks like they've improved significantly. St. John's will get an average tournament seed, likely a 7 or an 8, thus will draw tough match ups in the early rounds. I don't think this team has gelled enough to push a deep run in the tournament. They've adjusted to Big East play nicely, but I believe against a solid out of conference opponent, their unfamiliarity of this unit to the atmosphere + inability to have ample scouting time for their match up, will lead the Red Storm to an early tournament exit. Again, they have been impressive but this looks like an overwhelming position for them, and a 1st year coach w/his new team.

Syracuse Orangemen (25-6 #12)
Threat- Syracuse is in a good position after sputtering midway through their conference schedule. They are on a 5 game win streak, and are playing either as good basketball or better than they were to start the season (18-0). They have size inside and star power scorers that can shoot from the perimeter and drive to create shots for others (Jardine, Triche). They specialize in transition, and would rather not get coaxed into a half court game where they are more likely to falter. Coach Boeheim will have this powerful team ready come tournament time, and a high seeding compliments the Orangemen with a promising outlook at a deep run in the Dance. Again, it depends on who they draw, but will certainly be a tough match up for whoever it may be...and most importantly, Syracuse knows how to win games, which they have been doing consistently as of late. A 3 point specialist team such as Iona or Richmond could force tempo and give the Orange all they can handle-Syracuse does not want to get involved in a game like that, as they need to force their pace on the opponent to be dominant.

Villanova Wildcats (21-10 #19)
Threat- They are on a 4 game losing streak and not playing good basketball at the moment. What gives me a slight faith in the Wildcats is their non-conference accomplishments, and early play in the Big East. A decent run in the upcoming conference tournament could get Nova back on track come March Madness, but they will need big scoring performances from Stokes, Fisher and some of the younger players. A team that has faltered down the stretch like this after flexing their strengths early is a dangerous team. There is some down time between the conference tournament and the 1st round of the dance, and coach Wright will likely have this talented group prepared. Rebounding has been a bit of an issue for the Wildcats, as they are lacking a powerful inside presence, but like Cuse they specialize in transition and if the top scorers get going, its hard to stop their momentum. Villanova tends to perform well out of conference, and although this unit is somewhat inexperienced they do have to potential to win at least a couple of tournament games.

West Virginia Mountaineers (20-10 NR)
Threat- This Mountaineers team was overlooked to start the season as a Big East contender after losing their top scorer and some other essential pieces. Primarily, aside from the surrounding talent and an experienced PG (Bryant) running the offense, this team is coached up by Bob Huggins-one of the best and most intense in his field. They were tremendously competitive in conference and protected their home floor with zeal, also beating the teams they should beat @ road venues. Im not quite sure they have the play makers to make a very deep tournament run, as they will likely find themselves in a match up at some point that they will be unable to contain- but I would never count this team out in the early rounds. Depending on the draw, a Sweet 16 run is probable, and the Mountaineers may wind up with a 10 or an 11 seed in the tournament-well capable of knocking off a 6 or 7 in the bracket. This is a very balanced squad in all phases, capable of advancing in the tournament unless they blunder their opponents' scouting report(s).

UnContested 3's: Atlantic 10

I have gripes with the NCAA selection committee concerning at-large bids. The RPI and Strength Of Schedule system they maneuver around when making the bracket is nothing more than a skewed opinion, and I for one wanted the tournament expanded near the 100's because some of the better mid majors in the country that were well good enough to make deep runs, get left out and forced into the consolation tournaments. The national media outlets don't help the cause much either, and I will single out some of the ESPN clowns (excluding Coach Bob Knight), as they are bound by the company to carry out their corporate agenda. Truth is, their "College Basketball Expert Panel" is a joke, and the majority of the public that buy into their rhetoric need to stay far away from this article. There's no "cinderella" story here-how do you apply that fairytale to a team that ran through their regular season schedule, and racked up a ton of wins? I get the fairytale... sounds like a group of fairies telling tales-@Doug Gottlieb, Jay Bilas and the "bracketologist" Joe Lunardi: spare me. This is basically an implication that the top mid majors in the country are some well dressed scrubs, and these ESPN clowns are waiting for the clock to strike midnight so they can get on their panel and start their "I told you so" rants. When this backfires and a team like say a San Diego State or Temple knock through a few rounds, the panelists give them a little pat on the back, although still attempting to subtly discredit the accomplishment, writing them off in the following round. Im going to run through the top 6 teams (3 in, 3 out) in the Atlantic 10-it is likely only 2 or 3 will get in the NCAA tournament, because there is a lack of respect for wins within the conference, affecting the strength of schedule/RPI factor-the "march madness fundamentals". 20+ win seasons are thus discredited within the A10, and the selection committee cheats us by disabling their possibility of a strong run, replacing them with Virginia Tech or one of those Big 12 middle teams like Colorado or Nebraska who have next to no chance of breathing in the 2nd round, or possibly surviving the opening ceremonies. In this order, these are top 6 teams in the Atlantic 10-not relative to their record or national ranking, but rather the current state of team and how effective they have been up to this point in the season.

#A10; 3 IN:
#1: Xavier Musketeers (21-6)
Early in the season the out of conference schedule was the only gauge as to how good some of these A10 teams were. Based on how they started, I rated Xavier as the 3rd or 4th best team in the Atlantic 10 going into conference play. My perception was that they were still a threat, but dropped off from last year's Sweet 16 run. A 20 point loss at cross town rival Cincinnati had a bad look to it, as the Musketeers were undersized and taken advantage of by a Bearcats team that dictated the physical style of play on their home court. Pretty much the same scenario with a 9 point loss vs. Old Dominion, the defending Colonial (CAA) champion, a rebound heavy team that doesn't execute the best offensively, but has the muscle to wear you down. However, since a "shot for shot" out of conference performance, taking some lumps as well as dishing out, I would not by any means call impressive they pretty much locked down the Atlantic 10 with authority. The unit started to gel throughout the season as Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons make up one of the best back courts in the country. They sputtered going into conference play with losses to Cincinnati, Old Dominion, Florida and Gonzaga-all solid tournament teams (only home loss was to the Florida Gators) but also a few impressive wins over a talented Seton Hall team (although the record may not indicate), Butler, and defending SoCon champ Wofford. The initial surprise had to be the 1st conference game, when they waxed Rhode Island on the road- a 27 point margin of victory vs. one of the top Atlantic 10 teams that's definitely on the wrong side of the bubble this year. The Dayton, Temple wins @ home, and the win @ Duquesne mark their improvement as the season went on, but I realized they turned it up a notch since the season started, with a 23 point slaughter @ Richmond, probably the 3rd and final Atlantic 10 team that will squeeze into the tournament. Sandwiched in between those conference games was a semi-bracketbuster match up @ Georgia, an SEC bubble team that will likely steal an at large-who the Musketeers dissected in the 2nd half with ease on the road. Xavier likes to run, and their guards press and force a lot of turnovers. They will not slow the game down or buy into their opponents half court sets (i.e the Richmond game), as their intent is to score in the 80-100 point range-they hit this mark, its almost a guaranteed win. This is the best transition team in the Atlantic 10, although Duquesne is a close 2nd.
Good Wins: @Rhode Island, @Richmond, @Duquesne, Seton Hall, Butler, Temple, Wofford, @Georgia, Dayton.
Bad Losses: @Charlotte, @Miami (OH).

#2: Temple Owls (21-6) (ranked #24th in the Nation)
The most consistent team in the Atlantic 10, with a more impressive out of conference resume than Xavier. However, at the moment I have them ranked under the Musketeers who won the head-to-head, although it was a road game for the Owls. A neutral site win vs. Seton Hall to kick the season off was decent, also followed with several wins over top tier conference powers including Georgetown and Maryland. A close 4 point road loss @ big 5 rival Villanova was impressive, although still a loss, and they also took a couple close L's vs. tournament lock Texas A&M, and Cal, who looks like a tournament team 3/4's of the time but have no prayer of getting in unless they win the Pac10 tournament, an unlikely feat with Washington and Arizona as some powerful roadblocks. Temple has only 2 conference losses, both on the road, they haven't lost in their building (Liacouras Center) this year, and with the remaining home game vs. stumbling LaSalle, it will remain that way. They are fresh off a 17 point loss @ Duke, a game they played without their 2nd leading scorer (S.Randall), and a banged up front court-their 1st game in this shorthanded position vs. one of the best teams in college basketball/best home court advantages @ Cameron Indoor in Durham, N.C. Id like to see the Owls get Duke at a neutral site w/o the injuries. They hung around for a bit, but got closed out toward the end. The game hovered around a 12-14 point spread midway through the 2nd half and Temple couldn't close the gap.
Like Xavier, Temple hammered Richmond and Rhode Island for signature wins in conference, combined with a convincing win @ Dayton, and a domination of the lower half of the Atlantic 10-all allowing safe passage for the Owls into the tournament. Both road losses @ Duquesne and Xavier were respectable. I would have to say Temple is the most offensively balanced team in the Atlantic 10, and they can play to any opponents pace and match them for the most part.
Good Wins: Seton Hall, Georgia, Maryland, Georgetown, Rhode Island, Dayton, Richmond.
Bad Losses: None.

#3: Richmond Spiders (21-7)
This is pretty much a spin-off of last years Richmond team, my final 4 dark horse that got knocked out by Saint Mary's after I did a major scouting on their 2nd round Villanova matchup (never happened). Kevin Anderson, arguably the Atlantic 10's best point guard...I'll limit that to the offense they specialize in for now: they operate out of half court sets for the most part and shoot 3's, something they are extremely effective with, combined with them also being one of the best passing teams in the nation-makes for efficiency on almost every possession. Their achilles heel is in the post, where they don't have the frontcourt size to muscle those 2nd chance points. Those 20+ point losses to Xavier and Temple have an ugly sting to them-I would not expect anything other than a close game if the Spiders meet either of those 2 in the conference tournament. Lets not discredit what Richmond has done this season to date. Out of conference they weren't shy about beefing up their schedule. They played 2 of the top 3 teams in the Colonial-@ Old Dominion and at home vs. VCU, splitting the meetings losing at ODU, while beating Virginia Commonwealth at home} 2 teams also on the bubble this year. An 11 point win over top 10 Purdue @ a neutral site is probably the gold star on the resume accompanied by a couple of stripes-a road win @ Seton Hall (granted Hall's leading scorer Hazell was injured) and a road win in Pac 10 country @ Arizona State, who is down this year but still with power conference recruits. The Georgia Tech loss @ a neutral site is an indication of what can happen if Richmond does not shoot the ball well against a bigger team, which does not happen often. The Spiders play good defense, and rely on patience and pinpoint passing to create shots. A typical Richmond game where they control tempo puts the score in the low to mid 60's range, a result of operating out of the half court. When forced to operate against the press, they must be able to break it with their effective passing which is usually what happens. The road win @ Dayton was impressive as the Flyers could not press Richmond successfully, and the pace at which the Spiders were knocking down 3's while slowing the game down was frustrating Dayton. Other than Xavier and Temple ripping through it, if a running team succumbs to the Richmond offense, and ends up in a half court set...that's the Spiders web they just got caught in. The home loss to Rhode Island didn't surprise me-it surprised the bookmakers. URI is one of the better A10 teams and likely went into this game fired up after 2 incredibly bad beatdown losses @home vs. Xavier and on the road @ Florida. It was a tough spot for Richmond to match intensity with the Rams at that point in the season-they get a pass for that loss, it is not considered bad. Other than that, they mowed down the rest of the A10, forced a double OT on the road @ Iona, the likely MAAC representative in the tournament. Richmond has a good chance of winning out-but the final game of the regular season vs. Duquesne is a complete contrast of styles. Whoever dictates the game tempo will take that one, Richmond has the home court advantage and Duquesne MIGHT be starting to tailspin a bit losing 4 of their last 5, all very close. The road game @ Charlotte has its reasons for being a scary match up for the Spiders as well. I think Richmond needs a decent showing in the Atlantic 10 tournament to get an at large bid. They certainly can't afford to lose 2 of their final 3 regular season games either.
Good Wins: Wright State, Purdue, VCU, AZ State, Seton Hall, Dayton
Bad Losses: Bucknell