There are 11 teams that will likely represent the Big East Conference in the NCAA tournament-by far more than any other conference. I will be breaking down each team briefly, explaining my take on why this team will be a "threat" (deep run) or a "pest"(early exit) in the March Madness field. Unlike the selection committee, I'll be looking at the particular teams strengths, weaknesses and current state of play, rather than what they've accomplished throughout the whole season-targeting where I may find an unfavorable match up for the squad in question, but it all depends on who they draw. School 2 School in alphabetical order:
Cincinnati Bearcats (24-7 NR):
Threat- They started the season 15-0, dominated their non-conference schedule the selection committee considers soft-for the most part correct. Still 20 and 30 point wins over Xavier and Dayton respectively were very impressive. They held their own in Big East play as well after a questionable start. This team is very strong in the post, and they have good upperclassmen guards. Cincinnati will be a tough match up for anyone in the tournament, they don't have a blatant weakness and will not get blown out.. However, if it seems like an even match up, the Bearcats have a tendency to play to their opponents, and I don't necessarily trust them in close games. They get the "threat" title because it looks as though they've shifted into 5th gear in the last quarter. From an opponents standpoint, I would not want to draw them, but Cincinnati must prepare well once their counterpart(s) are determined-or they will be trading baskets with frustration.
Connecticut Huskies (21-9 #16):
Pest-Their success in the non-conference schedule is amazing, but they have dropped off a bit. They're a very young team and it looks like the wear and tear of the season has cooled them off some. I could very well see this team getting a 5 or a 6 seed and getting knocked off by an 11 or 12- a seeding that a team such as UNLV or Old Dominion may get. I'd rather not pass negative judgment on the Huskies yet but I will assume it, because of the lack of experience this unit has together. Calhoun is a good coach and Kemba Walker has proven clutch, and can take over a game-however there is a good chance they catch a tough draw they will not have the know-how to contain. This is a very good team, but again there has been a noticeable drop off this last quarter of the season.
Georgetown Hoyas (21-9 #17):
Pest-Bad break for the Hoyas. One of the more consistent and best teams in the conference all year loses their senior starting point guard, the prime distributor/ball handler that enables the rest of the Hoyas marksmen to shoot at an excruciatingly high % (11th in the nation). The injury to Chris Wright 3 games back has taken its toll (0-3) . They could get this hole fixed in the conference tournament once the backup Starks get his feet wet a bit @ PG, but this will be a big problem for them in the NCAA tournament-and unless this ship gets righted, just like last year-a solid season will be followed by another 1st round exit.
Louisville Cardinals (23-8 #11):
Threat- Louisville is infamous for the press + they like to get into transition. Last year they tried to press Cal, which didn't work as the Bears passed well and shot the lights out-knocking out the Cardinals round 1 behind a fast start. That's the danger here-a skilled passing team that can break the press will give that Cardinals' defense problems, but on the other side of the ball they have no problems scoring. If Louisville gets forced into a half court game it favors their opponent as they are rocked into that style, although it doesn't necessarily mean they will lose. They have many play makers led by PG Siva who sets the rhythm. IMO this years Cardinals team looks better than the last- and Louisville lost a lot of seniors/starters in what most would consider a "rebuilding" year. They have played far beyond expectations and should be well prepared to give their opponents fits on the other side of the bracket.
Marquette Golden Eagles (18-13 NR):
Pest- No guarantees Marquette gets in the field, but as of now they are the 11th and final Big East team in the NCAA tournament. The word I would use to describe this team is "scrappy", they play at an extremely fast pace, and like to get up and down the floor-similar to the philosophy taught at Louisville, or Dayton in the Atlantic 10. They're usually right there down to the last possession at the end of every game, but for the most part-they have trouble pulling out the "W" in these situations. They've also stumbled down the stretch in Big East play and although they had a brutal schedule, a (9-9) record in conference doesn't allow for much faith in this team. Marquette is more impressive because of their close losses rather than wins, and I can almost guarantee that their tournament draw will get all they can handle from the Eagles. Marquette will almost certainly be a double-digit seed in their Region, and will get a tough draw in the 1st round they can most likely hang with, but not defeat-This all depends on the match up of course.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (25-5 #7)
Pest- I'm either very confident in my expectations or just stubborn to have the current #7th ranked team in the nation with this record classified as a "pest" rather than a "threat". Not to take anything away from their accomplishments this season, but even if they manage to clear the 1st 2 rounds, I doubt they will get out of the sweet 16. They are a very crafty team, very well coached and will play to their opponents weaknesses. They held Pitt to a half court game on their home floor which was the best strategy vs. the Panthers, but at the same time they can also go into transition, with some deadly 3 point shooters (Hansbrough, Abromaitis). The knock on them is this: at some point in the tournament 1 of their match ups is guaranteed to be a team that will muscle them on the boards and wont allow much room for the Irish to operate freely on the perimeter- this neutralizes a very strong passing team, blinding the lanes and taking away Notre Dame's strength, which is shot creation off the assist. They don't run very deep as Coach Brey plays a 7 man rotation which could also hurt them in the later rounds if they make it that far. It will be difficult for Notre Dame to get into a power struggle with a physical team as witnessed vs. Old Dominion last year when they were eliminated. Granted, this Irish team is better than that one-but I believe that weakness is still imminent.
Pittsburgh Panthers (27-4 #5):
Threat- This Pitt team is the most dominant in the conference-almost certain protection of their home court, and have proven they don't get rattled in any road venue long enough to let a game get away from them. This particular unit has gelled after playing together for the last 2 years, on top of seemingly doing everything well on the court, they have been groomed by solid coaching. I wouldn't say they're the hottest team in the Big East right now, but they've consistently been playing the best basketball all year in the conference. Its going to be tough for anyone to knock the Panthers out of the NCAA tournament, although I am skeptical their physical style of play may be discredited by a group of foreign conference officials they may draw along with a more finesse opponent. Nonetheless, a deep tournament run probably is in order for Pitt.
St. Johns Red Storm (20-10 #15)
Pest- Hats off to St. John's for finishing the season strong after kind of feeling themselves out through the non-conference schedule and early in Big East play. This is expected with a coaching turnover, as coach Lavin had to get a senior laden team to buy into a new system he has got working and turned the Red Storm into a tough opponent for the top teams in the nation. This is a group where one can't necessarily criticize what they accomplished or lack-there-of in their non-conference schedule. They were still under Lavin's learning curve, hence they were involved in quite a few close games with teams they should have dominated and ran out of any building (Ball State, Fordham etc). Since then, it looks like they've improved significantly. St. John's will get an average tournament seed, likely a 7 or an 8, thus will draw tough match ups in the early rounds. I don't think this team has gelled enough to push a deep run in the tournament. They've adjusted to Big East play nicely, but I believe against a solid out of conference opponent, their unfamiliarity of this unit to the atmosphere + inability to have ample scouting time for their match up, will lead the Red Storm to an early tournament exit. Again, they have been impressive but this looks like an overwhelming position for them, and a 1st year coach w/his new team.
Syracuse Orangemen (25-6 #12)
Threat- Syracuse is in a good position after sputtering midway through their conference schedule. They are on a 5 game win streak, and are playing either as good basketball or better than they were to start the season (18-0). They have size inside and star power scorers that can shoot from the perimeter and drive to create shots for others (Jardine, Triche). They specialize in transition, and would rather not get coaxed into a half court game where they are more likely to falter. Coach Boeheim will have this powerful team ready come tournament time, and a high seeding compliments the Orangemen with a promising outlook at a deep run in the Dance. Again, it depends on who they draw, but will certainly be a tough match up for whoever it may be...and most importantly, Syracuse knows how to win games, which they have been doing consistently as of late. A 3 point specialist team such as Iona or Richmond could force tempo and give the Orange all they can handle-Syracuse does not want to get involved in a game like that, as they need to force their pace on the opponent to be dominant.
Villanova Wildcats (21-10 #19)
Threat- They are on a 4 game losing streak and not playing good basketball at the moment. What gives me a slight faith in the Wildcats is their non-conference accomplishments, and early play in the Big East. A decent run in the upcoming conference tournament could get Nova back on track come March Madness, but they will need big scoring performances from Stokes, Fisher and some of the younger players. A team that has faltered down the stretch like this after flexing their strengths early is a dangerous team. There is some down time between the conference tournament and the 1st round of the dance, and coach Wright will likely have this talented group prepared. Rebounding has been a bit of an issue for the Wildcats, as they are lacking a powerful inside presence, but like Cuse they specialize in transition and if the top scorers get going, its hard to stop their momentum. Villanova tends to perform well out of conference, and although this unit is somewhat inexperienced they do have to potential to win at least a couple of tournament games.
West Virginia Mountaineers (20-10 NR)
Threat- This Mountaineers team was overlooked to start the season as a Big East contender after losing their top scorer and some other essential pieces. Primarily, aside from the surrounding talent and an experienced PG (Bryant) running the offense, this team is coached up by Bob Huggins-one of the best and most intense in his field. They were tremendously competitive in conference and protected their home floor with zeal, also beating the teams they should beat @ road venues. Im not quite sure they have the play makers to make a very deep tournament run, as they will likely find themselves in a match up at some point that they will be unable to contain- but I would never count this team out in the early rounds. Depending on the draw, a Sweet 16 run is probable, and the Mountaineers may wind up with a 10 or an 11 seed in the tournament-well capable of knocking off a 6 or 7 in the bracket. This is a very balanced squad in all phases, capable of advancing in the tournament unless they blunder their opponents' scouting report(s).
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