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Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals (A.Harang vs. C.Carpenter)
On a limb, it wouldn't be outlandish to take a shot on the underdog Cincinnati Reds today in the Lou- but thats a tall order against Cardinals starter, Chris Carpenter. Reds former ace Harang (still a Red, no longer an ace) hasn't had success in Busch stadium against this clutch hitting Cardinals lineup, but they generally dont hit him particularly well. This is the "rubber game" of a 3 game series, Reds taking the 1st one on a called game rain delay- but losing the 2nd yesterday. Today Cincinnati faces Chris Carpenter who has solidified a strong ownership against the Reds bats. In Cinci's defense, their lineup is hitting well right now, sweeping the Astros in Houston, and giving one of the best NL teams (The Cards) a pretty good fight in this series thus far. Up and down the order the Reds are surprisingly productive this year with the bats...a feat that has been denied to them in the recent past. The acquisitions of Cabrera (Twins) and Rolen who came over midway last year from Toronto have given the lineup a boost, along with the ongoing decency of such hitters as Votto, Phillips and Jay Bruce. The Reds aren't a pushover by any means, but their pitching rotation is the weakness in their equation as they are primed to lose many pitching duels to opposing aces such as Carpenter, who the Cardinals are throwing out today to face them. Carpenter hasn't been nearly as dominant this year as the last, but the run support he is receiving is plenty, thus the wins are there (off to a 3-0 start). His #'s vs. the Reds are staggering over the last 3 years (4-0, 1.29 ERA), and there is no reason to doubt a dominant performance here. I am leaning on the Cardinals today in what I expect to be a low scoring game in general. I think Harang will produce a quality start for Cincinnati, but Carpenter could just plain shut the Reds out, or hold them to a couple of runs at most-plus he has always been a more of a menace to opposing lineups in the Busch, rather than road ballparks.
Saint Louis Cardinals (-1) (-170)