The Wire-Jays/Orioles Breakdown, Ravens/Jets Shot

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles (Rzepcynski @ Matusz)

It is no coincidence that Orioles 2nd baseman Brian Roberts finally returned to spark their lineup, and the new management (Showalter) has lit a fire under this club, thus they are playing insanely well at the moment. Showalter seems to have implemented an A+ strategy in regards to the Orioles rotation, which has been stretched from 5 to 6 starters. There's 1 workhorse in that rotation, Jeremy Guthrie who can do the regular 4 day rest week in and week out and consistently pitch strong. Millwood's a 13 year veteran who has improved in volumes since the extra day rest, and the 4 rookies (Bergesen, Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman) would also likely benefit. The bullpen has clamped down as well, preserving the leads they obtained in the early innings. The Orioles (55-88) are 23-16 since the beginning of August-which is around the time the Showalter regiment took over. The Blue Jays have owned the Orioles (12-0) this season, but a season sweep in my eyes is unlikely-I am targeting tonight's game for the streak snap. Interestingly enough, the Blue Jays lead the majors with 223 home runs, but only 35 of those coming against left handed pitching...they also hit a dismal .215 against lefties. The setback here is that in the past, Toronto hitters have had enormous success against today's Orioles starter Brian Matusz, a left hander, twice in 2 starts where they didn't just get to him, they rocked him. The Blue Jays hitters who have faced him have a consensus .500 batting average vs. Matusz. The surprise here is that Matusz is a high 1st round pick from 2 years back and has shown flashes of brilliance in his starts, notably in his recent ones-however the Blue Jays have his #, as of now. Everything is clicking for the Orioles at the moment, while Toronto is sputtering. They also don't send out much quality to the mound tonight with Rzepcynski, a struggling starter that the new-look Orioles have potential to feast on. This is a bad spot for the Jays...u could call it a revenge killing after losing the 1st 12.

Baltimore Orioles (-120)

+

***I expect that the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets game will be within a possession. I will not predict an outright winner, but on a buy down:

Baltimore Ravens (+7) @ (-270)

Green Corners: Dallas Cowboys

The last segment of the "Green Corners" series was a breakdown of several rookie cornerbacks in the AFC East who appear to have a shot at productivity in the NFL based on various aspects of their NCAA careers. I chose 1 rookie corner from each team, basically introduce them and write up a ballpark read of what I expect from them in their development process. Today I singled out the Dallas Cowboys to go diamond mining in the secondary. I believe I've found one here.

Dallas Cowboys: Bryan McCann, SMU ran a 4.28 40 on the Mustangs pro day, signed to the Dallas Cowboys as an undrafted free agent. I think the Southern Methodist hire of former Hawaii coach June Jones helped McCanns' development as a player in general. He appears to be the dime, 5th or 6th corner in most of the Cowboys defensive packages thus far (as the depth chart suggests), but could work his way up. I expect that we are going to hear his name called quite a bit throughout the season. I'm calling that this is a great pickup for Dallas from a school within their home state, that began their transition to becoming a powerhouse within Conference USA. With Terrence Newman and Mike Jenkins manning the boundaries in front of him, he should adapt nicely to the learning curve. He's also very fast, as his 40 time would suggest. I think the knowledge and improvement on football instincts McCann accumulated from his senior season will solidify at least mild success for him in the pros.

8/27: Drunken Young Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (J.McDonald @ C. Narveson)

Since the Brewers could do nothing against Dodgers pitching in the last series, maybe the baseball gods are giving Milwaukee a mild sense of redemption in facing one of L.A's promising castaways, now taking the mound for baseball's worst road team-so lets hope they deliver. Pirates starter McDonald stymied lineups in his first couple of starts for his new team- posting lofty pitching lines, but has since come back to earth. The Brewers bats should get up for this game after being victimized in the 4 game HOME sweep vs. premium dodger pitching (for the most part)- and they are more than comfortable facing the Pittsburgh Pirates, whom they own. Until the Pirates "talent" (i'm referring to all those prospects they have on the front line) deliver consistently, they will continue to pile up losses-especially in venues like Miller Park where they are infamous for losing in recent years (3-27 since '07). On the other side of the mound, Chris Narveson gives up a ton, but the Brewers lineup can hit- and frequently give him solid run support, hence his winning record (9-7). My read here senses that this is a tough spot for the Pirates...walking the plank . The Pittsburgh bats may actually go to town on Narveson, but if so, they will get outscored. I expect the Brewers to snap their losing skid.

Milwaukee Brewers (-1) @ (-145)

The Bat Signal

NY Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays (D.Moseley @ M. Rzepcynski)

The bet here is not calling a winner, but rather taking advantage of the totals-over/under 9 runs for this game. My assumption is that both clubs will score enough runs between them to go over the 9-10 run bar set by the oddsmakers. Initial reactions from checking in on the 3-2 Jays win last night, as well as going over the splits of the two starters for tonight's game, gives me what would appear to be a clear indication that both these high powered lineups will score tonight. It also eases this decision that yesterday's pitching clamped down in the RISP situations, thus leading to a low scoring (3-2) affair, decided on a solo HR. Can't relay who will win this, but I expect a high scoring game.

NYY@TOR Totals: Over 9 Runs (-150).

**Take The Detroit Tigers(-1) Tonight: -145

8/23 "Resenting SpoilerHood"

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (Chen vs. Bonderman)

The Tigers are hitting collectively well, as shown in their last series outscoring (19-3) and sweeping the Cleveland Indians in 3-the 1st half of this 6 game home stand. I would suggest to you that they sweep the rest of this home stand-thus beating the Kansas City Royals tonight. I have no reason to believe that Kansas City starter Bruce Chen will produce 2 quality starts against the Detroit Tigers this season-and to his credit, he already has 1 over in Kauffman. After an "out-of-body" start to the season for Chen, his #'s have started to drift back to "normal", or closer to what they have been in years past} it is my assessment that this is a bad spot for him, and this Detroit lineup is liable to strike early and chase him. After various moves before the trade deadline and outfielder DeJesus' injury, this Kansas City team is basically playing their farm- Billy Butler and Alex Gordon the 2 prospects, and some b-list defects from other rosters. The splits raised my eyebrow a bit, as the KC hitters are hitting a collective .346 vs. Detroit starter Jeremy Bonderman. He'll be looking to bounce back with a quality start vs. KC after getting shelled by the Yankees in his last outing. The added motivation leads me to pounce, and Bonderman is also looking to avenge a bad game against the Royals earlier in the year-this however, is against a more watered down Kansas City lineup than the 1 he previously faced. This is the furthest thing from a "pitchers' duel", but the Royals will not outscore Detroit.

Detroit Tigers (-156)

"Look Like An Alien or Loser Callin' Me Washed Up"

Oakland A's @ Chicago White Sox (Gonzalez vs. Floyd)

This looks to me like the most legible game on the board-within reason of anything close to even value on a return...when it opened the White Sox were at (-140), their value has decreased since as most of the money is pounding them as oppose to Oakland...I believe the Sox are in the (-160) range now. That Rich The Factor quote up top in the heading can apply to Alex Rios getting his current shots in when the Jays waived him-relating to the season he's having (.303 avg, 16 HR's, 60 RBI's, 23 steals). He's just 1 piece of a thorough lineup that can hit in general, but specializes in crushing left-handed pitching. Yesterday, Oakland LH pitcher Dallas Braden held the Sox bats in check and Oakland surprisingly took it to John Danks who has always gotten the better of the "small ball" Oakland lineup in the recent past. Today's starter for the A's Gio Gonzalez, also a lefty has the displeasure of facing a White Sox lineup that has his #. The fact that Oakland won yesterday gives me a bit more assurance in taking the White Sox to win this game as well, and the fact that todays starter Gavin Floyd owns the Oakland hitters and is pitching probably at a higher level than almost anyone in the majors since his shaky start to the season. We usually don't give the A's too much credit because they have no hitters, and their strength is built on their arms solely-never the bats. Gonzalez is turning the corner as a quality pitcher, as observed in his last duel with the Texas Rangers Cliff Lee...I still think this is a bad spot for him. Also, he's had success against the Rangers hitters, but never on the road in Arlington until his last start. The White Sox on the other hand have always troubled him wherever the location, and they play better in their park. Even if Gonzalez has a stellar outing, I don't see the Oakland bats hitting Floyd, who is virtually unhittable at the moment, and this is against potent lineups-Oakland's isn't up there, I figure they get shut down.

Chicago White Sox (-140)

Feast In The D

Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers (Romero vs. Verlander)

Here's the scope on these two clubs since the all-star break: Toronto continued their reign on the Orioles sweeping another 3 game series in their park (9-0 vs. Baltimore this year), then travelling to Kansas City and losing 2/3. Detroit had the AL Central lead by a whisker, and lost it after getting swept 4 games in Cleveland. The White Sox took their position, with the Twins gaining ground on both. In the confines of Comerica Park, they entered their 2nd series after the break with the Rangers, winning the only the last of a 3 game series. With this 6 game losing streak snapped in the recent win over Texas, I would expect a win streak to surface. Verlander is pitching for the Tigers, he goes deep into games and doesn't give up much-however, he has struggled with the Jays in the recent past, and the Toronto bats hit a collective .340 off him...thats the scare. Nonetheless, I don't think Detroit is slumping-the Cleveland Indians are hitting insanely well right now-they just took 2/3 in Minnesota as well, so the sweep of the Tigers is more a testament to the progress they have made with the talent in their lineup (centering around catcher, Carlos Santana)--the Indians bats will cool off eventually, but may well be that outside force that will solidify the AL Central champion. Also, for Detroit losing 2/3 to the Texas Rangers and the arsenal of weapons they have this year is nothing surprising-the bats are about even, but the majority of the pitching matchups favored Texas.

Getting this win out of the way should prove helpful to the Detroit Tigers going into this series with the Jays. Home Field plays a major role in this 1 I think, and the potent Detroit hitters get it done. Toronto puts up a fight and Romero is pitching which is a + for the Jays, but I would certainly take the Tigers to win.

Detroit Tigers (-136)