Sunday, April 25, 2010

CoUnTER ThE AcE



Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox (J.Vargas @ J. Danks)
Couple of things cross my mind in a series that I already expected- notably these 2 teams are on par with each other. When the Mariners get to full strength with their pitching, I give them the edge. Chicago took the series' 1st two games, and today send out their ace Danks. My immediate thought was the White Sox have the pitching advantage here, but I rarely expect sweeps between such 2 closely matched teams. It seems like in recent years Seattle has always given the AL Central teams tough games. Going to the splits, I also noticed in Danks outings vs. the Mariners he gets into trouble and they can hit him. I also noticed that he has better numbers vs. the Seattle hitters in their ballpark (Safeco) as oppose to the Sox park (U.S Cellular). Seattle currently has a different lineup than what has transitioned the last 2 years-it looks better. Seattle sends out Vargas who has pitched respectably thus far-and the White Sox haven't had much of a look at him-he's the "wild card" here; The Seattle Mariners bet will go as far as his pitching performance allows today. On Chicago's side, Danks is a good pitcher, this lofty 1.something ERA is a BIT overachieving-I think he comes back to earth against a Mariners team that has had success on him in the past. He might have a quality start but Seattle is worth a good shot.
Seattle Mariners (+140)
Seattle Mariners +1.5 (-150)

Atlanta Braves @ N.Y Mets (T.Hanson @ M. Pelfrey)
Over the last 3-4 games you might observe these are 2 teams going in opposite directions-an overzealous read. Yes, the Mets are getting better, but the Braves are not getting worse, they just hit a rough patch. The Mets are starting to win, and they actually have a decent bullpen this season as oppose to whats been going on over there in the past. Pelfrey has been exceptional with no losses and an E.R.A under 1-quite uncharacteristic of him, but its early. The Mets are playing very good baseball as of late and it would be a winning stretch to catch if you bet with foresight, but one has to believe there will be some road bumps along the way such is this one. Atlanta is not a bad team, they have lost 4 in a row and are in danger of being swept in New York today. The starter today Hanson, is one of their best and his rookie season last year, he gave the Mets all kinds of hitting troubles. Pelfrey on the other hand gets rattled against the Braves lineup as recent history would suggest. I think Atlanta snaps their 4 game losing streak today in Citi Field.
Atlanta Braves (-115)

BOARD:
(C Richard & H Bailey must start) CIN Reds0.0 @ +102
(Chad Billingsley & S Olsen must start) LA Dodgers0.0 @ -150
(R Wells & D Bush must start) CHI Cubs0.0 @ +104
(Chris Volstad & J De La Rosa must start) FLA Marlins0.0 @ +147
(B Penny & Matt Cain must start) STL Cardinals0.0 @ +110
(T Hanson & M Pelfrey must start) ATL Braves0.0 @ -116
(J Vargas & J Danks must start) SEA Mariners0.0 @ +140
(K Slowey & B Bannister must start) MIN Twins0.0 @ -134
(R Porcello & Colby Lewis must start) DET Tigers0.0 @ +118
(Javier Vazquez & S Kazmir must start) LA Angels0.0 @ +124
(J Masterson & G Gonzalez must start) CLE Indians0.0 @ +101
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Friday, April 23, 2010

SeA LeVeL



Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (B.Cecil @ M.Garza)
The Rays are heavily favored in this game (-230) ML, rightfully. Rays starter Garza has had the Jays number for years now--if the stats are legible to you, go check the splits out-its ridiculous. Brett Cecil just got called up from Triple A for his 1st start this year, and he should have some momentum going into it after strong showings for the Vegas 51's. Tampa probably has the scariest lineup, but keep in mind they have scored 20+ runs total in their last 2 games. Cecil should come into this game composed and have a respectable outing. There's no reason to think Garza won't shut the Jays bats down. I rarely bet totals, but this scenario calls for a low scoring game. Tampa ML isn't worth it unless you throw it on a parlay.
Total Runs: Under 9 (-145).

Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers (M.Scherzer @ S.Feldman)
For this game decision -im incorporating a few factors into my projected turnover...The Tigers are nearing the end of an AL West marathon, most recently splitting a 4 game series with the Angels yesterday-on the contrary, the Rangers are coming home from an east coast road trip with stops in Cleveland, New York and yesterday avoiding the sweep @ Boston. Detroit has been on the west coast for quite sometime now and less travel miles makes for a fresher Tigers team that coincidentally took the last 2 from the Angels, that just finished a similar road trip to the one Texas took. Angels starter Feldman doesn't have the shiniest numbers against this Detroit lineup, and they have hit him around in the past--he did however, significantly improve as a starting pitcher last year. Detroit starter Scherzer came over from the National League-so the Rangers hitters are for the most part, probably not familiar with him other than scouting reports and pre-majors action. Texas needs wins after a low road trip, but there might be some fatigue in the lineup- and I would speculate the pitching matchup favors the Tigers-but they are the underdogs.
Detroit Tigers (+112)

ThE BoARD:

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Thursday, April 22, 2010

DoGs DaY AfTeRNooN



I went against the grain today. 11 bets, 5 moderate to heavy underdogs and only one vastly significant favorite. These are for the most part, series endings.

Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins (M.Talbot @ S.Baker)
Couple of things to address here; The Twins lineup has never faced Talbot before. His 1st couple of innings to start the year were horrid, but i've observed that he has settled in, throwing a complete game his last start vs. the White Sox, and adjusting to the Tigers after getting rocked the 1st couple of times through that order. This is the final of a 3 game series, Minnesota expectedly taking the 1st 2. Today's starter Baker has had big success against this Indians lineup, but at the same time-I dont think Minnesota will hit Talbot too well, as they are unfamiliar with him. I'm not counting on the Twins sweep today, I think Cleveland will put up a good fight and has a good shot @ winning a close one. Both teams can hit, I think the pitching will neutralize this, and the Indians are semi-due for an offensive breakout.
Cleveland Indians (+180)

Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox (CJ Wilson @ C. Buchholz)
This is an interesting series thus far, Boston winning the 1st 2 games by 1 run each. There has been alot of hitting on both sides-notably, the Rangers destroyed Josh Beckett yesterday. This progressive east coast trip hasn't been kind to the Rangers, coincidentally starting in the midwest-@ Progressive Field in Cleveland, final game of that series-where the 6 game losing streak started. They got swept @ Yankee Stadium convincingly, and now, putting up a Green Monster fight in Fenway the 1st two games, but coming up short. Today the Rangers bats face Buchholz who's been able to hold his own against them in the past; nothing spectacular but they don't hit him particularly well. For Texas, CJ Wilson hasn't given up much ground in the starter role, and had an awesome spring training-so from a birds eye view, the sampling looks good over there. This losing streak could snap for the Rangers with authority today. Boston has a bit of a shoulder chip as well getting home swept by the Rays but as potent as the Red Sox lineup is, I could very well see them getting overwhelmed today.
Texas Rangers (+138)

Game List:
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Wednesday, April 21, 2010

HeNNePiN TaRGeTS/SkY DoME CaRPeTS



Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins (D. Huff @ F.Liriano)
Nothing is 100%-meaning we all miss sometimes and parity w/in the sport of choice must be respected. I didn't try to sneak a heavy fave in here, but the Twins get a (-180) money line. This is one of the more interesting series playing right now, considering both matchup and location, the new stadium in Minneapolis (Target Field). The Twins have taken well to their new home thus far and Liriano has been dominant vs. all hitters, all spring. Cleveland is a tough team and that offense is quite potent. It will be tough for the Twins to sweep the Indians- however, they took game 1 yesterday, and tonight points in that same direction. Indians starter David Huff has had a strong start- in my sampling pickups over the last 2 years, the Minnesota lineup gives him fits-hitting him well, and manufacturing runs. The pitching matchup favors the Twins, and the run support will likely be there to follow. I think Cleveland has a strong upset case tomorrow, stay tuned.
Minnesota Twins (-180)

Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays (Z.Greinke @ S.Marcum)
I had to throw an even line up to further some credibility here-this might be a nailbiter.
KC starter Zack Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball. No team really hits him all that well, but of all his opponents-the Jays are near the top...Greinke has had trouble in the Sky Dome on a few occasions. This is a day game-final of a 3 game series that Toronto can redeem sweep after getting absolutely violated by the Angels. Coming off the Tommy John surgery hasn't seemed to be a hindrance to Jays starter Marcum. All signs point that he hasn't lost stride-if this is the case, Kansas City wont get anything on him, the Royals lineup hits .155 against him and he dominated them in his 08' full season. No matter how well they are playing prior to a Toronto series, Kansas City seems to always have problems in the Sky Dome. I expect a sweep here, but as I said at the top, this is a risky matchup. Kansas City can now hit relatively well, and Greinke's track record on the mound speaks for itself. He gets fits in the Dome, and thats what Im banking on.
Toronto Blue Jays (-103)

The Order:
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Tuesday, April 20, 2010

ThE FooD ChAiN



St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks (K. Lohse vs. D.Haren)
This is one of the rare opportunities Arizona will likely get to beat the Cardinals because of a favorable pitching matchup- St. Louis has won their last 2, and have been getting run production in the late innings, both games were catch ups for them (vs. the Mets prior, AZ yesterday). Haren has the potential to shut them out despite St. Louis hitters like Holliday starting to heat up. Pujols hasn't done much the last 2 games, but they are getting offensive contributions from a couple other spots in the lineup (Ludwick, Rasmus etc.). Cardinals starter Lohse has good #s vs. Arizona as well. My thoughts are that Dan Haren is the shutdown corner here-however, if the Cardinals get to him early, I think its a done deal. It won't be easy-I think Arizona will take a 1 run game and snap their 4 game skid.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-138)

Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox (D. Price vs. J. Danks)
What Tampa is doing right now shouldn't be too much of a surprise-4 game sweep in Boston-breezing through that Red Sox rotation like a natural disaster...and for that matter take a look at the Rays rotation: Garza could get a CY if he keeps this up-well capable, and the run support is always there. The rest of the rotation carries their weight as well, they are going to be a tough catch in the AL East. Tonight the Rays take on a slumping White Sox team that got swept out in Cleveland. This series will determine whether White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen will have something degrading/entertaining to say to the national media about his team, to try and restore some kind of a spark. I will say this, the White Sox are not as bad as their record would indicate- and they will likely lose this home series to the Rays. Sox starter John Danks has had the Rays # the last few years- his numbers are outstanding against this lineup. Rays starter Price has pitched once in U.S Cellular and the White Sox hit him around a bit scoring 4 in 6 innings. Scare tactic here is that Price is progressively getting better, this is only his 2nd year. The Rays are probably the best team at manufacturing runs but Danks has the potential to keep them all off base today. If Chicago is going to take any game in this series, tonight is their best shot.
Chicago White Sox (+103)

Florida Marlins @ Houston Astros (C.Volstad vs. B. Myers)
In the off-season, pitchers make adjustments-in Brett Myers case, you would hope he did in relation to tonight's game in Minute Maid Park. A new ballpark and change of scenery can also be helpful, but your playing with fire running with it unless you see the adjustments 1st hand. What Im saying is, the Marlins absolutely destroyed newly acquired Astros starter Brett Myers when he was with the Phillies. The last 3 seasons vs. Florida, he is 1-6 in 7 games started, with an 8.01 ERA. Of course you now have to exclude ex-Florida hitters like Josh Willingham (Nationals) and Jeremy Hermida (Red Sox) who are no longer in the lineup but they have been replaced-and Florida's big dogs, Ramirez, Uggla and Cantu all smash Myers around. Its a scary time to bet against the Astros because they are starting to win a bit and will probably end up finishing closer to .500 than people would think. If Volstad can keep his cool tonight and not get shelled he will probably get all the run support he needs to pick up a W.
Florida Marlins (-109)

The Board:




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Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Oriole Redemption



Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles (Niemann vs. Matusz)
Today I threw an underdog up for the write up. Baltimore hosts Tampa for game 2 of the 3 game series. Guthrie was solid yesterday (7 innings, 3 runs)-Garza was better-Rays won. I think the Orioles take game 2, Niemann doesn't have good tags in Camden Yards and Baltimore will protect their house. Matusz is starting for the Orioles tonight, and Brian Roberts is unfortunately still injured-but aside from that, I think Baltimore snaps the 4 game skid. I think very highly of the Rays but its a long season and they're gonna get some speeding tickets along the way, and Im predicting they catch one tonight.
Baltimore Orioles (+116)

Also:
LA Angels@ NY Yankees (-170) {Santana@Pettite}
Arizona DBacks @ LA Dodgers (-165) {Kennedy@Kershaw}
Cincinnati Reds@ Florida Marlins (-120) {Arroyo@Robertson}
Yankees, Marlins, Dodgers Win;

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Sunday, April 11, 2010

Squaring Off With My Cities



Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (Blackburn @ Buerhle)
The White Sox have dropped their last 3- the 1st 2 in extras to Cleveland, then Minnesota before dropping their 2nd in a row to the Twins yesterday in a 2-1 pitchers duel. No rubber game for the White Sox in this series, this 3rd one is more like a "salvage" game and Im waiting to see what kind of noise Sox manager Ozzie Guillen will stir up in the media after this unfortunate start for his squad (record of 1-4). The Twins have been polar opposites to their contending counterparts, and I wouldn't expect much different throughout the season, they are stacked all over the spectrum of that lineup/rotation. Today the White Sox send out lefty ace Mark Buerhle who has a knack for shutting down the Twins in U.S Cellular. This is the White Sox best and last shot to avoid a home sweep in opening week to the team they will probably be chasing for the AL Central crown. The Twins send out Nick Blackburn who has started his season strong out the gate the last 2 years. Minnesota has opened the season with 6 straight road games as well as today before they start play at their new home, the Target Center. I think the White Sox steal this one in the series, but it will surely be a close game. With that lineup the Minnesota Twins will always put up a fight.
Chicago White Sox (-123)

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
The Blue Jays won the 1st 2 at Camden Yards this year, shutting out Baltimore 3-0 yesterday. Jays starter Sean Marcum doesn't have his best performances in this ballpark as recent history would suggest, and the fact that Baltimore got shut out yesterday doesn't help his cause for a win either. The Orioles sends the vet Millwood to the mound in order to snap this home losing streak to the Jays I would expect him to avoid the sweep for his ball club. A key component to the Orioles success with the bat and baserunning is injured (2B Brian Roberts), a definite setback to them. I think the Orioles hold Marcum to an average outing, and Millwood throws an exceptional game-this being his 1st start in his new home park, Camden Yards.
Baltimore Orioles (-117)
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