Scope On Contact---Arizona Diamondbacks

I've been tweaking CounterSurveillance since the 1st entry so I haven't stuck with the same layout/format-most of my bets are always up though with several hours to spare between then and game time at the very least. From now, Ive decided to maintain a schedule through the baseball season, I'm going to break down 1 team per entry-basically the traits I look @ alongside the pitching match ups, before reading into that particular teams' immediate future (W/L). I'm going to start in alphabetical order-so we're gonna take this out west- a Diamondbacks team running empty on venom. I also will have all my plays/bets up for the day, and the lines I received when I placed them.

Arizona Diamondbacks

--Bats--

Torch: SS Stephen Drew

Dead Battery: OF Conor Jackson

--Arms--

Live: Ian Kennedy

Dead: Dan Haren

Sometimes I forget this team exists--that could be a midwest/east coast bias, but I doubt it. This is more due to their lack of relevance within their division/league. My choices for the "bats and arms" nominees are more or less wings, and obviously a pitcher like Dan Haren can turn his season around. He hasn't been nearly as dominant as in the recent past but Im not counting him out as a threat just yet, this is likely an adjustment period. However, based on the recent performances he put out he takes my cake for the Diamondbacks "dead arm" based on his disappointing start, especially by his standards. Edwin Jackson hasn't looked like the one of recent years either-he also seems to be having trouble getting it done in the National League but he shut out the Florida Marlins in his last start, a lineup of hitters that have been successful vs. Jackson in the past. Come to think of it, if these two (Haren, Jackson) get clicking alongside Ian Kennedy who has turned his life around since coming over from the Yankees that could be a mean looking rotation, especially when their true #1 starter Brandon Webb makes his EVENTUAL return (seems like an eternity). Starting pitching has always been important to that team, particularly to make up for the lack of production from that batting order. Being #2 in the National League in home runs, they have alot of power in that lineup (Upton, Reynolds etc.) but they don't hit for average. SS Stephen Drew (J.D's lil' bro) is the only one around the .300 mark, and he's not a full fledged power hitter, even though he has some pop in the bat. This team can go hot and cold as far as run producing per game, but its not a clutch lineup the Diamondbacks are working with- and will most certainly continue losing more than they win. They need formidable starting pitching to carry above the .500 mark-and although the potential is there, thats not what it is @ the moment.

The Board:

(R Dickey & L Hernandez must start) NY Mets+1.0 @ -130
(R Wolf & B Burress must start) MIL Brewers-1.0 @ -135
(Tom Gorzelanny & J Moyer must start) CHI Cubs+1.0 @ -130
(Aaron Harang & K Kawakami must start) ATL Braves-1.0 @ -105
(G Smith & F Paulino must start) HOU Astros0.0 @ -105
(A Sanchez & J Garcia must start) FLA Marlins+1.0 @ -105
(W Davis & A Burnett must start) TB Rays+1.0 @ -120
(G Meche & J Masterson must start) KC Royals+1.0 @ -130
(S Baker & C Buchholz must start) MIN Twins+1.0 @ -140
(J Guthrie & R Harden must start) BAL Orioles+1.0 @ -110
(Joe Saunders & J Danks must start) LA Angels+1.0 @ -120
(J Verlander & D Braden must start) DET Tigers0.0 @ -118

Open Central

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs (B.Burres @ T.Gorzelanny)

This has to be one of the more dissatisfying pitcher match ups of the day, opening the board at 1:30pm (central time). Nonetheless, I've been playing both these clubs enough to gain good observations and THINK I know roughly what to expect. Gorzelanny was an ex-Pirate who started out promising, and went off track. The Cubs seemed to have redeveloped him into a quality starter once again, based on his progressive performance. Burres spent the last 2 years in the American League, starting for Baltimore 2 years back, then a stint with the Blue Jays--both unsuccessful. I recall betting against him on clockwork, waiting for his starts. Last series, Pittsburgh home swept the Cubs in 3 games-In his start, Burres shut out the Cubs through 7 innings, they hit .125 vs. him. A past performance: He pitched 1 inning in Wrigley Field last year, got shelled for 3 hits in that inning giving up a run. The Cubs have been cold as of late getting bested in their last few series, notably the Pirates sweep-but they have played with their batting order removing and adding pieces (S.Castro) and in the end this mix and match thing should work for the better. The line ups look healthier on paper and should translate into more runs, I hope. Pittsburgh has scored 1 run in their last 3 games, getting swept by the dangerous Cincinnati Reds. The Pirates aren't hitting right now and the Cubs kind of look like they are taking baby steps towards where they should be. I don't think Burres has it in him to outfox the Cubs again, especially in their park and I expect an offensive breakout. On the flip side I wish I could put more stock in Gorzelanny, but I'm going to base this play on the NorthSide Chi line up.

Chicago Cubs -1 (-170)

(B Burress & Tom Gorzelanny must start) CHI Cubs-1.0 @ -175
(J Garcia & Aaron Harang must start) CIN Reds+1.0 @ -120
(O Perez & A Sanchez must start) NY Mets+1.0 @ -135
(I Kennedy & K Kawakami must start) ATL Braves0.0 @ -124
(J Moyer & R Wolf must start) MIL Brewers0.0 @ -124
(J Masterson & J Guthrie must start) BAL Orioles0.0 @ -121
(R Harden & B Cecil must start) TEX Rangers0.0 @ +111
(C Buchholz & M Scherzer must start) DET Tigers+1.0 @ -125
(S Baker & A Burnett must start) MIN Twins+2.0 @ -175
(D Fister & W Davis must start) TB Rays-1.0 @ -165
(Mark Buehrle & G Meche must start) KC Royals+1.0 @ -120
(D Braden & Joe Saunders must start) LA Angels0.0 @ -115

Run Line Abuse

Since May 8th I've been spreading the bankroll over the entire board everyday minus a couple of games. My record is 42(w)-20(L) (6 pushes) mostly thanks to my comfort level with the run line cushion. Today is full of intriguing pitching match ups in the 8 games on the board---Today Im not super confident in the legibility of each game and have to really dig deep to finally conclude a projected winner. We could wing it and bet on the familiar aces like Greinke (KC) or Sabathia (NYY) but although exceptional pitching lines are likely, the victories for their clubs aren't certain. I have 8 projected winning bets for today's schedule---I'll throw some dart facts out for each game, a short form reasoning for 3 of my plays. Today looks shaky, but at least a tread water outcome (maybe a 4-4, 5-3 record) would be acceptable. I'm more or less looking ahead, as I have ambitions of sweeping up the full 15 game schedule tomorrow.

Seattle Mariners@Baltimore Orioles (F.Hernandez @ K.Millwood)

-Baltimore is starting to catch up to their losses with better play as of late.

-Seattle looks as though they are starting to snap out of their current hitting slump.

-Seattle starter Hernandez has had success vs. the Orioles, most notably in Camden Yards.

-Hernandez also a top pitcher coming off a terrible start; redemption likely.

-Orioles starter Millwood struggles vs. the Mariners lineup, they hit him well.

-I think this game gets away from Baltimore in the later innings.

Seattle Mariners (-130)

Houston Astros@St. Louis Cardinals (B.Norris @ C.Carpenter)

-Norris has got the better of the Cards but not anyone else, I think that changes today.

-Houston won the 1st 2 of this road series, and although well capable of a sweep-not with this pitching matchup (again);

-Familiarity should catch up to Astros starter Bud Norris and I expect the Cardinals lineup to hit. On the flip side, Cardinals starter Carpenter can shut down anyone---especially in his home park.

St. Louis Cardinals -2 (-113)

New York Yankees@Detroit Tigers (C.C Sabathia @ J. Verlander)

-Close pitching matchup, initial instinct is to take the Yanks b/c one doesnt expect them to lose a series. Verlander is an ace with exceptional numbers vs. the Yankees. He's also pitching in his home park and has more of a knack for day games. Reading deeper into this, regardless of the improbability of the Tigers taking 3/4 from the Yankees I would read a low scoring close game unless the bullpens get handled. The safety is on here for me.

Detroit Tigers +2 (-180)

BOARD:

(C Sabathia & J Verlander must start) DET Tigers+2.0 @ -185
(D Huff & Zack Greinke must start) CLE Indians+2.0 @ -180
(Felix Hernandez & K Millwood must start) SEA Mariners0.0 @ -135
(J Lannan & J Chacin must start) WAS Nationals+2.0 @ -165
(J Santana & Josh Johnson must start) NY Mets+1.0 @ -160
(Ben Sheets & C.J. Wilson must start) OAK Athletics+2.0 @ -180
(M Latos & Jonathan Sanchez must start) SF Giants-1.0 @ -145
(B Norris & Chris Carpenter must start) STL Cardinals-2.0 @ -113

X-PhiLLY ArMS and A K-BaND RaDaR

Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners (M.Garza @ C.Lee)

The Mariners are in the midst of some turmoil which has reflected on their recent play, losing 8 of their last 10- including a current 4 game losing streak. They swept Baltimore in 3 the series prior to this lowly stretch. One (+) for Seattle is the return of the huge off-season arm acquisition of Cliff Lee who is back in the American League after half a year with the Phillies. He didn't allow a run vs. a potent Texas lineup that just got their all-star 2B Kinsler back from an injury, but he was matched by the Rangers starter (C.Lewis) and Seattle ended up losing 2-0 in extras. He gets his chance tonight at his 1st win as a Mariner, but the glitch is that he is facing one of the toughest lineups in the majors, the Tampa Bay Rays. Unfortunately for them, Cliff Lee has had past tendencies to shut the Rays lineup down as they do not hit him well (roster bats .189 vs. Lee). He is also showing no signs of rust, or a need to get comfortable/recover into a groove on the mound as was visible from his last start, where he rolled through the Rangers lineup. Rays starter Matt Garza is one of the best in the majors, but has had considerable trouble with the Mariners lineup and they've hit him well in both Safeco and The Trop. I think Seattle snaps their losing streak tonight.

Seattle Mariners (+100)

Arizona DiamondBacks @ Houston Astros (R.Lopez @ B.Myers)

The Astros are in danger of getting swept at home by an average Diamondbacks team, and to make matters more inexcusable for Houston, AZ's ace Dan Haren did not make an appearance this series. Today, I would suggest that Houston salvages this one and avoid the sweep scenario. The lineup faces D'Backs pitcher Rodrigo Lopez, who these Houston hitters have seen before and have maintained success against. Lopez has pitched once in Minute Maid Park and got tagged pretty badly by the Astros. Houston starter Brett Myers who came over from the Phillies this year has converted back to a starting role after being relegated to closer and middle relief duty for Philadelphia during the title hunt years. He's been ok in this role thus far, and should keep the Astros in this game enough where they can hit around Lopez some and hold a lead.

Houston Astros (-105)

MiDWeST TRiBaL AmBUsH

Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians (B.Cecil @ M. Talbot)

I'll address a few reads I've picked up on in the recent past about both ball clubs. I think the Jays hit better away from the Sky Dome than they do at home-as their record would suggest. Their bats run hot and cold, and as the last series with the Oakland A's would confirm (Toronto took 3/4 games) the lineup clicked, a nice recovery after getting home swept by the Red Sox. Game 1 in this series poses a different kind of problem for the Jays. Cleveland has settled into their home stand, and coming off a 3 game series with the charged up Minnesota Twins (winning 1/3), they will be well prepared for the Jays who start their road trip tonight in the MidWest. Cleveland starter Mitch Talbot has been on my radar since I watched his 1st game in Detroit. He got hammered for 4 runs in the 1st 2 innings, but then breezed through the Tigers lineup until he hit his roundoff 100 pitch max. No team has been able to hit him since (Record: 3-1, 2.05 ERA), and none of the Jays have ever faced him before. Since I watched Talbot finish off Detroit that 1st game, Ive bet on him every start- and bookmakers hadn't picked up on him, as Cleveland was always getting the underdog spots. The Jays counter with a proven to be effective weapon of their own- the reasoning behind the close line (Jays +106). They called up former 1st round pick Brett Cecil from Las Vegas (AAA), a couple starts back and he has not disappointed thus far. Last year, he faced the Indians twice in the Sky Dome and dominated them both games (N/R, o.69 ERA) in 13 total innings pitched-but they did bat .265 against him which does not indicate Cecil was dominant, in comparison to such few runs being scored against him (2 runs, 1 earned) in the 2 starts. Pitching in Cleveland however should be a different jungle for Cecil-he has never pitched in the Jake before and now the Indians hitters including the likes of Sizemore, Choo, Cabrera, Hafner, Peralta etc. have seen him a for a 3rd time and get him in their house. He may settle down on them as the game goes on, but I have a feeling the Cleveland hitters will make it very uncomfortable for him, early. On the other side of things, I don't think the Jays will hit Talbot today all that well if at all, and Cleveland has been able to give him run support since his 1st start. The Indians are also due for an offensive breakout, and that lineup can score in bunches, especially after the Twins did a pretty good job of holding them in check the last series. Psychologically, this is going to be a tough series for Toronto batters after eating through the Oakland rotation.

Cleveland Indians (-112)

I could have made my feature the Yankees over Baltimore tonight...haha sometimes U gotta earn it though.---ah, What the Hell...

New York Yankees (-1) (-225)

PaiNT ThE ToWN ReD (Home Colors Only)

Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals (A.Harang vs. C.Carpenter)
On a limb, it wouldn't be outlandish to take a shot on the underdog Cincinnati Reds today in the Lou- but thats a tall order against Cardinals starter, Chris Carpenter. Reds former ace Harang (still a Red, no longer an ace) hasn't had success in Busch stadium against this clutch hitting Cardinals lineup, but they generally dont hit him particularly well. This is the "rubber game" of a 3 game series, Reds taking the 1st one on a called game rain delay- but losing the 2nd yesterday. Today Cincinnati faces Chris Carpenter who has solidified a strong ownership against the Reds bats. In Cinci's defense, their lineup is hitting well right now, sweeping the Astros in Houston, and giving one of the best NL teams (The Cards) a pretty good fight in this series thus far. Up and down the order the Reds are surprisingly productive this year with the bats...a feat that has been denied to them in the recent past. The acquisitions of Cabrera (Twins) and Rolen who came over midway last year from Toronto have given the lineup a boost, along with the ongoing decency of such hitters as Votto, Phillips and Jay Bruce. The Reds aren't a pushover by any means, but their pitching rotation is the weakness in their equation as they are primed to lose many pitching duels to opposing aces such as Carpenter, who the Cardinals are throwing out today to face them. Carpenter hasn't been nearly as dominant this year as the last, but the run support he is receiving is plenty, thus the wins are there (off to a 3-0 start). His #'s vs. the Reds are staggering over the last 3 years (4-0, 1.29 ERA), and there is no reason to doubt a dominant performance here. I am leaning on the Cardinals today in what I expect to be a low scoring game in general. I think Harang will produce a quality start for Cincinnati, but Carpenter could just plain shut the Reds out, or hold them to a couple of runs at most-plus he has always been a more of a menace to opposing lineups in the Busch, rather than road ballparks.
Saint Louis Cardinals (-1) (-170)

TruTH SeruM

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (M.Pelfrey vs. R.Halladay)

My call on this is based on a few past observations. Pelfrey has the best record/ERA combo among starting pitchers. I watched his last start @ Turner field where he countered Atlanta ace Hanson, and faced a slumping Braves lineup. The game was called after 5 innings due to rain- the Mets held a 1-0 lead- the deceit is that Atlanta was hitting the Mets starter rather well, but couldn't bring runners around. As a matter of fact, Pelfrey's WHIP (walks/hits per inning-1.20) isn't nearly as spectacular as his record, respectable but not dominant. A former 1st rounder in 05', maybe this is his career year that will define the rest of his time in the majors- but I've seen him pitch, and can't say Im thoroughly impressed. The Mets have won 8 in a row and that lineup is quietly stacked with good hitters and base runners-so we can attribute it to that, as well as their pitching. Scoring will probably be scarce for the Mets as they face Roy Halladay-the one positive is that their leadoff hitter SS Jose Reyes is 4/4 lifetime off Halladay with a triple...although his last AB's were more than 3 years ago. For the rest of the Mets hitters it looks pretty bleak from there, and Halladay is looking to lock down, coming off a loss in his last start- a rare find. Pelfrey historically has trouble pitching in the Phillies' park Citizens Bank and after such a prominent start to the season I think he gets roughed up a bit today by the reigning NL champs.

Philadelphia Phillies (-1) (-160)